I'm not saying AI is living up to the "hype" or "expectations" - it would largely depend on how you quantify the hype or expectations. Most rational would be to consider how much money is funneled into vs how much ROI would it have within some time range in the future, e.g. 10 years. A wise investor would look ahead 10 years, balance benefits, potential and risks. By that metric it could be too early to say if it's paying off even if it's objectively clearly bringing 10x more expense than income.
But the metrics or facts without context or deeper explanations also don't mean much in that article.
> 95% of AI pilots didn’t increase a company’s profit or productivity
If 5% do that could very well be enough to justify it, depending on for which reasons and after how much time the pilots are failing. It's widely touted that only 5% of start ups succeed, yet start ups overall have brought immense technological and productivity gains to the World. You could live in a hut and be happy, and argue none of it is needed, but none the less the gains by some metrics are here, despite 95% failing.
The article throws out numbers to make a point that it wanted to make, but fails to account for any nuance.
If there's a promising new tech, it makes sense that there will be many failed attempts to make use of it, and it makes sense a lot of money will be thrown in. If 5% succeed, it takes 1 million to do 1 attempt, but the potential is 1 billion if it succeeds, it's already 50x return.
In my personal experience, if used correctly it increases my own productivity a lot and I've been using AI daily ever since GPT 3.5 release. I would say I use it during most of what I do.
> AI Pullback Has Officially Started
So I'm personally not seeing this at all, based on how much I personally pay for AI, how much I use it, and how I see it iteratively improving, while it's already so useful for me.
We are building and seeing things that weren't realistic or feasible before now.
What if switching to 3 ply toilet paper (from the dreaded 1 ply) in employee bathrooms increased productivity in 5% of companies. We could also apply the same logic that these 5% could also produce 50x returns.
So firstly to be comparable, you'd have to make a claim that we are in a 3 ply toilet paper overhype cycle that is about to pullback and make a claim that 95% of the companies that use it, fail. Then I would come in and ask about the 5%.
I'm not sure what your point is, but I do absolutely think that getting proper toilet paper offers 50x returns and everyone should prioritize it.
Better yet, get a bidet :)
The point is, the above logic depends on the part about "1 million" and "1 billion", that is, it assumes a thousand times profit for the 5% of companies that succeed in getting productivity improvements from AI or toilet paper. Eh, but I guess TP is cheap, so maybe you're going along with that.
More so I'm showing how it's not evidence that AI pullback has started.
To prove, that AI is a overhyped bubble and won't bring in the ROI expected, you'd need to show that these companies won't bring expected ROI within a longer timeframe.
Time is ticking and running out. You do realise future numbers have to be discounted heavily for the required rate of return given the risk, right?
This means the free cash flow to the firm OAI generates will have to be huge, given the negative cash outflows to date.
Then to prove that it's a bubble and a failing bubble, you should bring out the specific numbers if you do have access to them. I'm just saying the numbers outlaid in the blog post are not evidence alone and brought examples where similar numbers could be observed while something is still highly successful.
5% succeeding is abysmal for an industry where a trillion dollars or more is invested in.
And that’s ignoring the rampant copyright infringement, the exploding power use and accompanying increase in climate change, the harm it already does to people who are incapable of dealing with a sycophantic lying machine, the huge amounts of extremely low quality text and code and social media clips it produces. Oh and the further damage it is going to do to civil society because while we already struggled with fake news, this is turning the dial not to 11 but to 100.
Sure, it can do plenty of harm, but it doesn't mean that AI pullback has officially started or that it won't bring in the ROI for the investors.
lolol "I still use it, so clearly everyone else still loves it and thinks it's amazing"