What if switching to 3 ply toilet paper (from the dreaded 1 ply) in employee bathrooms increased productivity in 5% of companies. We could also apply the same logic that these 5% could also produce 50x returns.

So firstly to be comparable, you'd have to make a claim that we are in a 3 ply toilet paper overhype cycle that is about to pullback and make a claim that 95% of the companies that use it, fail. Then I would come in and ask about the 5%.

I'm not sure what your point is, but I do absolutely think that getting proper toilet paper offers 50x returns and everyone should prioritize it.

Better yet, get a bidet :)

The point is, the above logic depends on the part about "1 million" and "1 billion", that is, it assumes a thousand times profit for the 5% of companies that succeed in getting productivity improvements from AI or toilet paper. Eh, but I guess TP is cheap, so maybe you're going along with that.

More so I'm showing how it's not evidence that AI pullback has started.

To prove, that AI is a overhyped bubble and won't bring in the ROI expected, you'd need to show that these companies won't bring expected ROI within a longer timeframe.