The point is, the above logic depends on the part about "1 million" and "1 billion", that is, it assumes a thousand times profit for the 5% of companies that succeed in getting productivity improvements from AI or toilet paper. Eh, but I guess TP is cheap, so maybe you're going along with that.
More so I'm showing how it's not evidence that AI pullback has started.
To prove, that AI is a overhyped bubble and won't bring in the ROI expected, you'd need to show that these companies won't bring expected ROI within a longer timeframe.