This particular market is too illiquid to mean anything.
Right now, there is only about $500 in liquidity if you wanted to buy in at the 20% ask with a market order. After that the next sell limit order it as 96%.
If your definition of “making money” is turning bitcoins into USD at bitcoins low point, and then paying that back to them in 2 years, alright.
You can have whatever opinion you want about the bankruptcy process, but FTX was most certainly insolvent, due to fraud, and at that point whatever happened after the recovery to make people as whole as possible (which for many was not even close) really shouldn’t get credited to SBF.
Call me crazy, but if my bank tells me that my deposits are in safe assets like treasuries, but then the CEO takes the money to Vegas and puts it all on red, even if the CEO wins that bet, I'm very ok with that CEO going to jail.
Of course, if the bank is upfront that they take customer deposits to Vegas, then its fine.
Or if they took my deposit and commingled it with company funds and bought some illiquid luxury real estate in the Bahamas for their staff to live in totalling $240m. If they’re upfront about that, probably nobody deposits with them.
Not necessarily. I think the intention was to drive up the value of FTX assets by investing in companies and coins that increased said value of the FTX platform. The value of held FTT was dependent on the value of FTX.
Will it work? If I had to bet then I'd say probably not. For any other president this would not even merit any thought beyond "lol" and that alone is worrying.
No chance SBF ever goes out (until he's done with his sentence).
Two huge factors against him:
* Most people don't even know who CZ is, so this is meh-tier. People know SBF and find him repulsive, literally. Whoever puts SBF out of jail will face a massive PR backslash, he's not important enough to be worth that.
* SBF stole from the rich, the only real crime in the US.
Very few times you see someone who is equally hated by: the law, the public and the rich. He's screwed, lol.
SBF/FTX was also a massive donor (using customer money) to Republicans. They routed that money through Ryan Salame, I guess to avoid appearing to be as unprincipled as they actually were.
The common theme to the donations ("payoff" or "bribe" might be more accurate), whether to D or R was to weaken any push for crypto regulations.
I'll bet he's kicking himself now... he made the wrong bet associating himself with Democrats, who let justice take its course despite the donations, when these days Trump will just take a payoff and issue a pardon.
He's already out. Livestreaming his stock trades on X everyday. Probably has less interest in being an officer. He can still short pharma companies freely now.
Regarding your first point - how about George Santos? I suspect Santos was more well known than any of the crypto-scammers, was clearly guilty, was derided by both ends if the political spectrum - yet Trump commuted him.
Commute != pardon. Santos is still convicted and guilty of all of those charges. He just doesn't have to serve the rest of the sentence. I'm not sure if those were felony charges, but if they were and he's in a state that doesn't allow felons to vote...
A pardon makes it all go away. None of the baggage of convictions follow. Finding a job or a place to live is something they can do, as well as voting again.
SBF was/is left (and I suppose mostly signaled rich in that camp), Ulbricht libertarian, but they were caught and therefore had to serve time in jail regardless. That is how our system works. SBF specialized in large scale grifting (like Madoff), Ulbricht in providing an anonymous platform for trafficking. They're competitors of Trump, but given their experience, intelligence, and disadvantage (jail time) if bend loyal they're an asset.
It isn't about any of these people though. Trump is about only one thing: himself (a trade he shares with someone like KJU of North Korea). Specifically, as a narcissist, Trump is all about his image: business and might makes right, no matter the rules. Trump therefore hates the left, truth, honesty, ethics, empowering the weak and minorities, et cetera. Most importantly, he is signaling here: 'if you do business with me, we do the criminal path, and you get caught then I have the power to pardon your sentence.'
Whether Trump is currently a criminal or not, he was and is a convicted felon.
The above is also why I very much suspect Ghislaine Maxwell has dirt on Trump.
Only 16% but rising fast. https://polymarket.com/event/sbf-released-from-custody-in-20...
This particular market is too illiquid to mean anything.
Right now, there is only about $500 in liquidity if you wanted to buy in at the 20% ask with a market order. After that the next sell limit order it as 96%.
2m in outstanding volume on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumppardon/trump-pardons/kxtru...
That's the total market volume, not the volume on SBF.
I imagine at least one guy that could create the market for you and then get the profit.
I consider SBF's crime way less serious given that the end result actually made money for "victims"* which was the intended goal from the start.
However Binance guy knowingly commits money laundering and gets the pardon?
* Those victims who did not wait through the full asset recovery process and sold their debt to "vulture investors" for pennies on the dollar.
If your definition of “making money” is turning bitcoins into USD at bitcoins low point, and then paying that back to them in 2 years, alright.
You can have whatever opinion you want about the bankruptcy process, but FTX was most certainly insolvent, due to fraud, and at that point whatever happened after the recovery to make people as whole as possible (which for many was not even close) really shouldn’t get credited to SBF.
If he gets the blame for buying them, he gets the credit, too.
Call me crazy, but if my bank tells me that my deposits are in safe assets like treasuries, but then the CEO takes the money to Vegas and puts it all on red, even if the CEO wins that bet, I'm very ok with that CEO going to jail.
Of course, if the bank is upfront that they take customer deposits to Vegas, then its fine.
Or if they took my deposit and commingled it with company funds and bought some illiquid luxury real estate in the Bahamas for their staff to live in totalling $240m. If they’re upfront about that, probably nobody deposits with them.
So he intended to get caught and have his investments seized and go up in value while seized. Noble.
Not necessarily. I think the intention was to drive up the value of FTX assets by investing in companies and coins that increased said value of the FTX platform. The value of held FTT was dependent on the value of FTX.
SBF already did an unauthorized interview in prison with Tucker Carslon.
Gislaine Maxwell will be next.
Holmes has nothing to offer him.
They're trying to turn it in to a culture war/"big pharma" type issue. They've been trying since he got in to office – see: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44002658
Will it work? If I had to bet then I'd say probably not. For any other president this would not even merit any thought beyond "lol" and that alone is worrying.
Fraud talent.
Lol sure she does
SBF, maybe. Elizabeth Holmes, no chance.
No chance SBF ever goes out (until he's done with his sentence).
Two huge factors against him:
* Most people don't even know who CZ is, so this is meh-tier. People know SBF and find him repulsive, literally. Whoever puts SBF out of jail will face a massive PR backslash, he's not important enough to be worth that.
* SBF stole from the rich, the only real crime in the US.
Very few times you see someone who is equally hated by: the law, the public and the rich. He's screwed, lol.
I would add that SBF was at one point the 2nd largest donor to Democrats.
SBF/FTX was also a massive donor (using customer money) to Republicans. They routed that money through Ryan Salame, I guess to avoid appearing to be as unprincipled as they actually were.
The common theme to the donations ("payoff" or "bribe" might be more accurate), whether to D or R was to weaken any push for crypto regulations.
Actually the opposite. SBF was lobbying for crypto regulations. Of course those regulations would benefit FTX as an incumbent.
Correct. I think it is fair to say that SBF would rather be associated with Democrats based on how he wanted to hide the donations to Republicans.
I'll bet he's kicking himself now... he made the wrong bet associating himself with Democrats, who let justice take its course despite the donations, when these days Trump will just take a payoff and issue a pardon.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/02/sam-bankman-fried-considered...
I watched this documentary:
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2023-ruin-ftx-documentary...
The way CZ managed to tie up FTX in a knot was a masterclass. (about 59min in).
> Whoever puts SBF out of jail will face a massive PR backslash [sic]
We’ve been hearing variations of “massive PR backlash” should Donald Trump do XYZ for literally a decade now.
There has never been any consequential backlash whatsoever.
> massive PR backslash
Personally I do not believe there can be PR backslash for convicted criminal voted in as president.
What are the odds Shkreli gets a pardon so he can be an officer of a publicly traded company again?
He's already out. Livestreaming his stock trades on X everyday. Probably has less interest in being an officer. He can still short pharma companies freely now.
A pardon has effect on more aspects of a sentence than the carceral period.
Regarding your first point - how about George Santos? I suspect Santos was more well known than any of the crypto-scammers, was clearly guilty, was derided by both ends if the political spectrum - yet Trump commuted him.
Commute != pardon. Santos is still convicted and guilty of all of those charges. He just doesn't have to serve the rest of the sentence. I'm not sure if those were felony charges, but if they were and he's in a state that doesn't allow felons to vote...
A pardon makes it all go away. None of the baggage of convictions follow. Finding a job or a place to live is something they can do, as well as voting again.
By not pardoning, the state can't recharge them.
SBF was/is left (and I suppose mostly signaled rich in that camp), Ulbricht libertarian, but they were caught and therefore had to serve time in jail regardless. That is how our system works. SBF specialized in large scale grifting (like Madoff), Ulbricht in providing an anonymous platform for trafficking. They're competitors of Trump, but given their experience, intelligence, and disadvantage (jail time) if bend loyal they're an asset.
It isn't about any of these people though. Trump is about only one thing: himself (a trade he shares with someone like KJU of North Korea). Specifically, as a narcissist, Trump is all about his image: business and might makes right, no matter the rules. Trump therefore hates the left, truth, honesty, ethics, empowering the weak and minorities, et cetera. Most importantly, he is signaling here: 'if you do business with me, we do the criminal path, and you get caught then I have the power to pardon your sentence.'
Whether Trump is currently a criminal or not, he was and is a convicted felon.
The above is also why I very much suspect Ghislaine Maxwell has dirt on Trump.
You're probably right, because she smoozed with Biden, but with Trump anything is possible with the right bribes.
Does SBF have any ability to pay a bribe at this point?
I suppose one might assume he has some funds stashed offshore somewhere.
His parents might but I don't think they're accepting bribes from Stanford profs. Maybe CZ can advocate for him to have a rival again.
The Ivy League colleges should start campus on prisons for their alumni and other inmates who could learn and continue the grift.
Is it called a bribe at this point, or is it tribute?
Indulgence might be the most appropriate term.
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