So much of the journalism we read is heavily processed and barely-reported and it's startling to see how much of a superpower simple shoe-leather reporting actually is. Derek Thompson's an incredibly sharp writer, but not really a subject matter expert on housing economics; all he did here was read papers and call up the authorities they cited, and the narrative behind those papers collapsed.
We're often so down on journalism on HN, and I believe a big part of that is we tend to read so much opinion and analysis and so little basic reporting.
I've been loving Thompson's substack (which is mostly not about housing policy so far).
Reporters used to start at something like the City News Bureau.[1] For a century, the City News Bureau covered local news for Chicago and sent it in to the local newspapers. Lasted until 2005. Young reporters started there, covering every police station, every major crime, every major fire, every major trial, and getting the facts right, or else. The bureau`s unsentimental motto: ”If your mother says she loves you, check it out.”
We need that again. As I point out occasionally, read news, and ask yourself which stories started out as a press release. For the City News Bureau, nothing started as a press release. They had people pounding the streets of Chicago for a century. Today, the pundit to reporter ratio is far too high.
There's a great book about the Bureau, called "Hello, Sweetheart, Get Me Rewrite". (by Dornfield, not the one by Sears, which is something else entirely.)[1]
[1] https://www.chicagotribune.com/1990/06/20/if-city-news-burea...
[2] https://www.amazon.com/Hello-Sweetheart-Get-Me-Rewrite/dp/08...
Legacy journalism has changed from a low-barrier-to-entry working man's occupation, with entry level reporting leading to high-paying punditry, into a high-barrier-to-entry ivy league occupation with new entrants to the field expecting prestigious positions from the start.
It’s also what’s called a high prestige low pay career which is by definition exclusionary of poor and middle income people, so the news makers are further and further detached from regular people.
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2022/02/07/the-dangers-...
There are still hundreds of thousands of journalists around the country who don't have ivy league educations and are getting paid a pittance to work in their fields. I once worked for a publisher which hired reporters making $12 an hour who easily worked over 60 hours a week. Big city reporters might push out a few stories a week. The small town people are cranking them out by the dozen, with about 3/4ths of their bylines being "<newpaper>" Staff so that people remain unaware of how understaffed these papers are.
Sorry to derail this thread on journalistic merit..
I just thought that this other thread on housing microeconomics is worth pointing out, to anyone who might be excited about the prospects of enlightened tax policy
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44750961
>This is most clear in insurance data where replacement cost is isolated from land value.
The Rust evangelists don't want you know this, but a land value tax would fix data races
Haha it feels like it makes sense!
Yes the deeply depressing thing is that these sort of city news articles are now very much taken verbatim from press releases, and those press releases are from professional police communications departments, and so this gives enormous new powers to the police in able to shape the broader narrative as their politics and agenda see fit.
For example we can see here that this news article is lifting directly from the police press release. https://bsky.app/profile/kwardvancouver.bsky.social/post/3lu...
Maybe it wasn't even an overworked city reporter that did this but simply an automated AI creating news articles straight from the police press releases.
The problem is that nobody would pay for it. People expect news to be free, and click bait and lazy copy paste or LLM journalism is cheaper and works just as well to get clicks for ad dollars.
Would people pay for real journalism?
Depending on the specifics of the publication, we can broadly say that print media used to get more revenue from advertising than people actually buying the physical media.
You could Google it and read about the decline but Wikipedia is a place to start:
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decline_of_newspapers?wprov=sf...
Newspapers used to give copies of their daily paper away in bulk to distribution hubs so as to boost circulation. In fact, they still do.
You can often pick up a paper for free when boarding a flight.
You're really just observing that the marginal cost of reading is tiny. That doesn't mean that the fixed cost of producing an article or edition isn't very large, and needs to be paid for somehow.
"You can often pick up a paper for free when boarding a flight."
I have literally never seen this. In the US?
In Europe for instance
The beginning of the end was Gannett and USA today...
Lets be real here, in the past advertisers did pay for it, but all advertising spend has moved on to the clickbait-youtube/google/Facebook garbage heap.
Don't people already pay for things like the NYT?
I guess local papers might be harder, they may have to demonstrate they can reveal the journalistic failures of other papers in local affairs.
Nobody pays for news from the NYT. NYT is a game developer that also provides news on the side. Their games are their main draw; my gf subscribes and never reads the news.
https://www.axios.com/2024/01/29/wordle-nyt-games-news-media...
The legacy media were advertising companies who also happened to provide news. People aren't willing to subscribe for advertising, but they will for games.
If we're going by anecdata, here's another data point: I subscribe to NYT and don't play any of their games. Yes, I read it for the articles but also, to a large degree, for the subscriber comments as well. Similarly to the reason I frequent Hacker News. And to stay up to date with what has been my home for a long time. And also NYT Cooking, though I only access that once in a blue moon.
It's fascinating to me that people would pay to read obvious political propaganda.
I get that the state-sponsored "news" in many EU countries is heavily politically coloured, but why would something like NYT be if they have paying subscribers? I never did the research, but I'm guessing they must have huge additional streams of income besides payments from readers?
It's depressing to see the paper that once had the courage to publish the Pentagon Papers seen as publishing political propaganda.
What alternative revenue incentive do you see that could support independent journalism?
You think nobody accused the NYT of propaganda during the Pentagon Papers years? Or ultimately, any other publication during any other period? What's new?
Don’t take it too seriously. NYT reporting contrary to the reader’s politics = propaganda/shilling. NYT reporting in line with the reader’s politics = hard hitting journalism speaking truth to power.
It's a form of tithing. You give to the propagandists providing the slant you align with, even if they're wealthy billionaires. It's been common for belief communities for centuries. Poor people do it for access to wealthy individuals or as a form of gambling on the promises of the propaganda, and wealthy individuals, when they give, are also doing so for influence (access to poor people en masse). Its propaganda all the way down.
It's just called exchanging money for goods and services. When did HN contract reddit's obsession with billionaires in every thread?
Traditionally it was ads that contributed most of the money a newspaper took in, but the fact that people were paying for the paper re-assured the people buying the ads that the papers were actually being read.
NYT is an exception, or more specifically it's much bigger than most other news shops and has the luxury of having a large loyal customer base, a brand reputation to defend, and a full time business analysis and data science team to upkeep its excellence. Your local papers are barely scraping by and are mostly owned by hedge funds whose primary objective to squeeze the consumer via judicial usage of paywalls and clickbaits. A commitment to truth and deep investigative reporting for them does not keep the lights on. The other papers and magazines are all subsidized by billionaires or other vested interests. The price for those is indoctrination.
Also NYT has spent a lot of time and energy into diversifying into things that are not news.
There is a subset of its customers that is only really paying for the games like the crossword. There is a subset only really paying for Cooking. etc.
Just like the old days, when people would subscribe to the daily newspaper for the crossword, the comics, the TV listings, the want ads, or the ads and coupons with the Sunday paper.
NYT is really just making the old newspaper model work in the new age, albeit with higher reliance on subscription revenue and less an ad revenue.
I’m reasonably sure that most of the national-level news media companies have been owned by millionaires (and now billionaires) for the last century. William Randolph Hearst, E.W. Scripps, the Ochs-Sulzberger family, Raoul H. Fleischmann, Cyrus H. K. Curtis are a few of the prominent wealthy owners of nationally-distributed news outlets and publications in 1925. Back farther to the Civil War you find more “independent” publications but it’s a challenge to determine which of them were privately owned by individuals of considerable wealth vs. those owned by their publishers who may or may not have been wealthy.
For a current breakdown, see: Index of News Media Ownership: https://futureofmedia.hsites.harvard.edu/index-us-mainstream...
> The problem is that nobody would pay for it
User "api" said "nobody", so that is enough to refute their point. Some people would might pay for it, it seems.
> NYT is an exception
> The other papers and magazines are all subsidized by billionaires or other vested interests.
How is the NYT an exception?
a large paid subscription base
That's no different from the other papers and magazines.
Paid subscriptions have never been a significant source of revenue to newspapers. They relied on advertisements, just like the websites that killed them.
That's not entirely true for NYT as OP mentioned. NYT is 170 years old. They have been through many phases and models.
Luckily NYT is a public company and you can look up their revenue split on the SEC website going back to 1994. In 1994 they had 35% revenue from circulation vs 65% from ads. In 2021 it was 24% ads and 68% subscribers and 8% "Other"
That's creepy when you consider how much subscription to ALL newspapers has collapsed between 1994 and 2021.
Tells you how hard advertising collapsed in the same time period. I was at a small chain of local papers from about '09-'13. I saw it first hand.
Classifieds used to be a cash cow... not EASY money nessesairly, it's made $20 or so at the time, but it was a lot of money. Things like apartments for rent or cars for sale.
Then craigslist came a long and killed that.
Similarly ads went from large purchases, often for very large placements (we'd do things like sell rights to entire sections for flat fees), went to Pay Per Impression models paying hundreths of a cent, with no guarantees or minimums.
The Washington Post is also a public company (before 2013). In their 2009 filing, they state that the newspaper's revenue (in 2008) was 51% ads, with the other 49% not attributed.
At that time operating expenses exceeded revenues by 25 million dollars, though this was not an immediate problem for them because they owned several other more profitable companies.
By contrast, in that same year the New York Times announced that they had managed to stave off insolvency by securing a large personal loan from Carlos Slim, who went on to become their biggest shareholder.
How are we distinguishing between these two newspapers? What's supposed to be "exceptional" about the New York Times?
Why are you looking at 2009? Is it because you think it fits your narrative? What happened in 2008 I wonder that may cause companies to be struggling? NYT is a profitable company with majority of their income coming from paid subscriptions. Does that answer your question about how they are different or do you wanna check their revenue split and financials in 1928 too?
A business secured a loan from a billionaire after the GFC and paid it off in 6 years. The billionaire also acquired a significant position in the business that he has mostly exited with a significant profit generated from the business subscription model. More on this crazy story as it unfolds at 11
It's no different -> Paid subscriptions have never been a significant source of revenue to newspapers -> well, they were struggling in 2009 -> ...
I'm looking at 2009 because the claim above was that newspapers other than the New York Times, but not the New York Times, are subsidized by billionaires, and 2009 is the year that the New York Times had to beg for a subsidy from a billionaire. Was that not clear from my comment?
How is taking a loan a subsidy? do you understand how loans work?
It's no different -> Paid subscriptions have never been a significant source of revenue to newspapers -> well, they were struggling in 2009 -> they took a loan that one time -> ...
If the NYT could sell those shares at the market price, they'd have been able to sell them to public markets. The only reason they'd possibly have to transacting with an individual is if there was something about the deal that exceeded the debt or equity financing available publicly.
What shares are you talking about? Debt != shares
From wikipedia:
> Slim's investments in the company included large purchases of Class A shares in 2011, when he increased his stake in the company to 8.1% of Class A shares,[43] and again in 2015, when he exercised stock options -- acquired as part of a repayment plan on the 2009 loan -- to purchase 15.9 million Class A shares, making him the largest shareholder.
[my emphasis, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Company ]
Your point being? I just want a coherent response from you. Your initial question was how is the NYT different as you assumed they make all their money from a billionaire benefactor and that subscriptions are not a significant part of the income of any news paper. Now it's about that one year where their income wasn't doing well. And they took a loan. And the creditor bought stock that they sold later.
> by securing a large personal loan from Carlos Slim, who went on to become their biggest shareholder.
NYT has dual class shares. It’s run by the Sulzberger family despite Slim’s stake.
They are rich, but not billionaires.
Surprised that no one has mentioned 404 media, a dedicated news sub I pay for annually. Good reporting is worth it to me, especially to get past all the b.s. marketing hype and influencer shilling. Maybe they’re unpopular here on HN but I stand by the sentiment: legit, good journalism is worth supporting financially.
>Would people pay for real journalism?
See the comments every time a pay-walled article is posted here.
The problem with current paywalls is that each one wants you to purchase a monthly subscription to read the article, I don't want to have a subscription for each news site I might want to read an article from. I'd like a convenient way to pay a few cents per article, I could maintain my own balance of "news budget" per month and spend it, but paying US$ 5-10 at each paywall I encounter is simply not viable.
All newspapers got fucked by the internet, I can't comprehend how they didn't figure out that banding together to provide a centralised service to allow me to keep a balance and pay out per article read might have worked. Instead they defaulted to using Big Tech ad networks to patch their lost revenue.
Make it convenient and people might pay, requiring a subscription is definitely a huge friction on the top of the funnel, I'd even say it's a very fine mesh grater. No one wants to go through a fine mesh grater to read news articles.
> The problem with current paywalls is that each one wants you to purchase a monthly subscription to read the article, I don't want to have a subscription for each news site I might want to read an article from.
Yet people love their monthly subscriptions to listen to a song or an album (Spotify), or to watch a movie (Netflix). It's clear to me that the future of written content, especially news, is mass syndication (like you mention). Where you pay a monthly subscription to get access to a wast library of content from different sources.
One big difference there is that for the vast majority of people, they can get the vast majority of their music or video content from that single service (or at worst a small number of them).
But for reading news articles, there's a LOT of diversification. It's nowhere near one-stop shopping. In fact, a responsible reader ought to want to diversify points of view to avoid bubbles.
Of course, that doesn't eliminate the possibility of an industry consortium allowing a reader to pay into a single pool and read content from many sources, with payment distributed in some equitable manner.
That's what I'm suggesting. If music streaming services can offer both gangster rap, classical music, heavy metal and pop, then surely a news/article syndicator should be able to offer access to papers from vastly different perspectives. I want both extreme right and extreme left, and everything in between in the same subscription.
I think about this from time to time. Personally I would pay per article if it's convenient. I don't want to shell out $20/mo for, say, the Economist right now but if there was a particular article I wanted to read I'd probably pay a few bucks.
The papers wouldn't go for it, but these days I can subscribe to individual writers I like on Substack rather than paying for a newspaper subscription and subsidizing content I don't care about. More bang for buck. People have to be met halfway.
> I don't want to shell out $20/mo for, say, the Economist right now but if there was a particular article I wanted to read I'd probably pay a few bucks.
The Economist is one of the few news sources worth paying for.
Every week, there's a tour of the world's major events, by region. There will also be an in-depth article on one country (how's Rwanda getting along?), an in-depth article on one industry (what's the situation with bauxite supply?) and maybe a section on some technology (water desalination, who's doing it?) Over a year, most of the world and most of the industries are covered. Read the Economist for a year and you get a sense of how the world works.
The target audience is the movers and shakers of the world. Look at the employment ads.
There's a general pro-capitalism bias, but it's British-European, not US-oriented.
I love their writing, but I hate their subscriptions. The only way to cancel is to talk to customer service via chat or phone, who will keep begging and insisting that you not cancel and offering discounts to try to stop you. When I finally did manage to cancel, it required at least half an hour of insisting to some salesman.
I originally planned to just take a break, but after that distasteful cancellation procedure, I didn’t feel like resubscribing.
The Economist regularly goes on sale at discountmags.com. For years it was $1/week, but recently the price increased to $75/yr. It's not on sale at the moment, but for anyone interested, I recommend setting up a deal alert at slick deals [1] to get notified the next time it's on sale - probably around Black Friday / Christmas.
I have been subscribing to the Economist through DiscountMags for over a decade now, and consider DiscountMags to be a totally legitimate business. DiscountMags does automatically enroll you for their "DiscountLock" auto-renewal when you place an order, but you can turn it off at any time through their website without talking to anyone (and I would recommend turning off DiscountLock as it no longer locks in the original price like it used to... so better to just re-up during a sale period).
[1] https://slickdeals.net/f/18290980-the-economist-magazine-1-y...
For what it’s worth, they offer subs via IAP in the iOS App Store. If you subscribe that way, unsubscribing is just a couple of taps.
That €349 per year is pretty steep, though.
I sent them an email to unsubscribe one time to take a break too, though I'm European that was many years ago. I hope it didn't get worse.
Yeah, it's good. I just find it expensive to pay for regularly.
The underlying assumption is that of capitalism, that is, that things should be profitable or at least self-sustaining. But if you do that, things like the USPS donkey train [0] would be stripped, the US military would / should be reduced to a fraction of its current size or down to nothing, etc.
Independent news should be completely free from capitalist interests.
[0] https://facts.usps.com/8-mile-mule-train-delivery/
> But if you do that, things like the USPS donkey train [0] would be stripped, the US military would / should be reduced to a fraction of its current size or down to nothing, etc.
and that is a problem because? These are funded by tax dollars collected. It's impossible for people to stop paying for them whether they make sense or not.
[flagged]
The article here is about bad faith left wing arguments. Presumably you'd pay for those I guess?
> We're often so down on journalism on HN, and I believe a big part of that is we tend to read so much opinion and analysis and so little basic reporting.
I think a large part of it is that major news organizations too often don't do this kind of reporting, and often just seem to chase the same hot button topics as the rest of the crowd over and over again. And even then, few really dive into the details.
You're larger point is entirely correct, that there's a ton to be learned from old school journalism, and there are people out there doing it. But it's unsettling how much of it only gets covered by citizen journalists doing this in their free time, not by professionals who are supposed to be doing this for a living.
For example, the D.C. Attorney's Office had been simply dropping 2/3's of the criminal cases that came to them. No one noticed this until a anonymous internet account, DCCrimeFacts, went through the records and realized that this had been happening for years. Once that account wrote about it and it gained traction, major papers like the Washington Post started reporting on the story, it eventually ended up being an issue in Congressional hearings, and lead to changes in the way the U.S. Attorney's Office operates.
The account spent a lot of time digging through records and reporting on issues with the criminal justice system you wouldn't find elsewhere. But it was someone's side project, and there haven't been posts in a year.
Another example is the FAA scandal, when the best information has come from a single blog post by a law student who happened to go through the legal paperwork and was surprised that this hadn't been reported on.
The professional news media outlets do have some good reporters, and sometimes there are important deep dives there as well. But they feel few and far between, usually opting to chase infotainment (or sometimes the pet projects of a particular journalist).
It's amazing how many big stories we only get if some random citizen happens to spend their free time doing a personal journalism project, and if that project happens to get enough traction that people actually read it.
Links for the curious - DCCrimeFacts [0] and I assume the FAA case is Tracing Woodgrains [1], though I could be wrong
[0] https://dccrimefacts.substack.com/
[1] https://www.tracingwoodgrains.com/p/the-faas-hiring-scandal-...
> I think a large part of it is that major news organizations too often don't do this kind of reporting, and often just seem to chase the same hot button topics as the rest of the crowd over and over again. And even then, few really dive into the details.
The point of most media is to drive agendas, not uncover the truth. Doing proper reporting would create a problem and get in the way of what you want people to do.
or to sell ads
Journalism has all the problems of being a shrinking high status low income industry. Living in NYC I know a few journalists, and if you scratch below the surface on many of their bios they are quite often from wealth of one form or another. At least enough wealth to subsidize them living in an expensive NYC zipcode on awful starting pay with low growth and ceiling.
So it really is quite a monoculture. 20 years ago they all lived in UWS, now it's somewhere between Park Slope and North Brooklyn. Ever noticed how many local color stories used to be UWS focussed and are now Brooklyn? A lot of trends pieces are "stuff I noticed in my friends group" type of depth, and they all have the same friends groups. They literally don't know what they don't know.
> how much of a superpower simple shoe-leather reporting actually is. Derek Thompson's an incredibly sharp writer, but not really a subject matter expert on housing economics; all he did here was read papers and call up the authorities they cited, and the narrative behind those papers collapsed.
Matthew Stoller called the people Derek Thompson called, and some said Derek had misrepresented their opinions. So shoe leather caused the narrative of this so-called reputation to collapse as well.
> and some said Derek had misrepresented their opinions
Because he did? Or because once the entire cumulative picture got painted they looked bad and needed to walk their opinions back?
That didn’t age well. Based on the response it sounded like he made it up whole cloth or just completely ignored big portions of what the people he called said?
Link? I'd love to read countervailing reporting.
I want to say something about Stoller bringing a knife to a gunfight but really this fight only required Thompson to have a telephone.
https://x.com/DKThomp/status/1951083395146231957
What did Stoller think was going to happen? Calling people up on the phone is Thompson's entire schtick at this point.
Musharbash left a meaty reply in the thread:
In any event, my argument was also that three other factors — particularly financial policy changes starting in the 1980s that deprived small builders of bank capital, helped Wall Street to exert control over large builders and impose production discipline on them...
https://xcancel.com/DKThomp/status/1951089471501508766#m
Musharbash's argument, however, is dependent on the exercise of oligopoly power (whether he admits that or not, and given that he's long argued that the oligopoly is present...), and there's no evidence of it!
He tries to twist Lambert's words to say he's only saying there's no evidence of builders throttling at a national scale, thereby leaving room for his argument that it's happening in particular markets (https://x.com/musharbash_b/status/1951133245342404888). The only problem? Lambert clearly isn't specifying a national scale when he says "US," because he then continues by providing an explanation for the local weakening seen in some metros.
Musharbash seems smart enough to understand that, which leaves intentional misrepresentation. He's doing damage control, and hoping to wave his hands hard enough that it isn't noticed.
Please don't link to x.com, it is impossible to read a conversation there without an account.
BTW, you can use 'xcancel' (or even post the Blue Sky links) if you don't want to give traffic to the guy reposting what's in the screenshot:
https://bsky.app/profile/whstancil.bsky.social/post/3lv6ul7x...
Appreciate the fact digging!
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Please don't post personal attacks to Hacker News. It's not what this site is for, and destroys what it is for.
https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
Understood, but it's also the case that people frequently cite Stoller as if he's a legitimate analyst like a New York Times or Wall Street Journal reporter with skills and editors, and he doesn't actually understand any of the subjects he's trying to report on. I'll dial the snark back.
I read that as a very useful public service message. It also seems to be true. It also seems to be about a public person.
I've been involved in a lot of discussions about "what is journalism? what do real journalists do?", and the best response I've heard was from Ian Betteridge (of Betteridge's Law fame), who told me "Journalists pick up the phone." It may have already dated as a pithy description, but the idea of literally calling[1] people to fact-check or dig deeper is a low bar that a surprising amount of current journalism doesn't clear. And I say this as someone who has definitely done the non-journalism: just writing an opinion, or a column, or blog post, or whatever. Or, perhaps most insidiously, when you have a thesis for an article and you just collect the (partial) facts you need to flesh out that thesis.
I know why people blame the internet, the drop in rewards for journalism, the pressures to churn out text, that has led to. But I'd also emphasise that it's a vocational skill that not everyone is built for, or trained to do. But it's as Thomas says, that scarcity means that it's still as valuable (and recognisable) as it always was.
[1] Or emailing -- but emailing, and emailing, and emailing, then calling, and emailing again until you get an answer.
> I know why people blame the internet, the drop in rewards for journalism, the pressures to churn out text, that has led to. But I'd also emphasise that it's a vocational skill that not everyone is built for, or trained to do.
As someone both built for and trained to do it, I can tell you I'd be making at least US$150k/year less if I was still doing it. I wager I'd be short about $1.25M in career earnings through just salary in the time since I moved from the copy desk to tech.
That's factoring in how, through the first third of my tech career I was still making just $35-60k/year. And I was ecstatic, because $35k was a five-figure raise over running the front section of a daily newspaper.
Every person in the first two newsrooms I worked in is either dead or has left the journalism field completely, including a Pulitzer Prize-winning author and the entire team of editors, artists, and photographers who worked on the winning story. Most are now in PR, consulting, or (as a symptom of being near the Gulf Coast) in some arm of the fossil-fuels industry. One of the last whose career I keep track of just took up mail-order baking.
It's a financially unsustainable field in any market. At 5 years' experience at the head of the editing wheel, I was living paycheck-to-paycheck paying just $400/month in rent, living with two roommates in a single-wide trailer in the middle of a sugar cane field.
The vast majority of those City Desk-style journalism jobs made primary-school teaching salaries look attractive _25 years ago_, much less now. By the time I left, all of those jobs that I knew of had either moved to contract gigs or stringers (freelancers paid by column inches of text) unless you were in a big-city market or working for a regional/national paper.
The myth of building up a journalism career at an institution from the bottom of the org through shoe-leather reporting alone, without already knowing or being related to someone who could move you ahead of the rest, was already far past dead in most of the US.
If I could find a journalism job that paid half what I make now, made me travel constantly, had shit benefits, got me put on watchlists, made me deal with some of the slimiest people on the planet in the forms of career local politicians and court lawyers on the daily, and put me in precarious situations... I'd still probably take it, because I miss it every day. But that job flat-out does not exist in any form that I'd get a callback for unless I married into a publisher's extended family, and hasn't for decades.
Urban primary school teachers get a pretty attractive comp package these days!
I was a teacher and stopped in 2011. Pay was $38k/yr with summer school. Looks like the same southern California inner city school district pays $68k/yr now for the same pay step. That is a big jump but I am not sure I would call it attractive. And in North Carolina's state capital, where I am now, the rate is $50k/yr. That is some struggle-bus territory.
My first programming gig doubled my income and nearly halved my hours. The stress lowering alone would have been worth it. I haven't had anyone try to physically fight me as a dev. I think the same applies today; teachers are underpaid.
This is very region dependent. When I left education for consulting after 10 years as a HS teacher, I was making 55k. I started at 38k.
In Chicagoland, it's one of the better benefits packages you can get in a widely-available job. Defined-benefit pension, great health, huge amounts of vacation.
I know a few retired teachers in the Chicago area, and it’s uniquely generous*.
Appreciate the inside perspective.
I'm curious what's your take on news agencies like Reuters and AP? Do they pay better? Do they have resources to do real journalism?
> But I'd also emphasise that it's a vocational skill that not everyone is built for, or trained to do.
Somewhat-related to another front-page item today about, how lots of jobs sound kind of crazy if you really detail them out: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44710651
> all he did here was read papers and call up the authorities they cited, and the narrative behind those papers collapsed
Did it collapse, or he simply created another dubious narrative to replace the previous one?
It collapsed.
I assume I'm somewhat impartial, I don't know this author, it's the first time I hear of the "antitrust left" or of the argument that big monopoly builder purposely keep the market scarce to increase prices. And it's not an issue that I hold a strong opinion about.
The way the piece reads to me is a "He said, She Said". And I have to choose whose word I trust.
Two articles, both claim to have spoken to expert sources, both claim the expert have told them X and Y. One says the expert told them things that corroborates the idea of the "antitrust left", and the other claims the sources actually disagreed with it.
So my personal take is that both appear untrustworthy and biased, pushing their own distorted narrative.
The crazy part about this is that it is fundamentally a competition problem, but they misidentified the perpetrators. It's not predominantly construction companies colluding with each other in the market, it's land owners colluding through regulatory capture of zoning boards to constrain construction.
Or, to the extent that it is construction companies, it's still regulatory capture rather than market collusion, but in their case it's capture of occupational licensing to artificially restrict people from entering into the trade labor market.
I have never heard antitrust left either. The author casually namesdrop it like some school of thought. I just read it as a virtue signaling epithet.
Hold on. Take the first claim. Derek Thompson called the author of the paper who effectively said "no my paper does not support the claims made".
So either:
1. Derek Thompson is flat out lying
2. The author is wrong and confused, or
3. The critics are wrong
The critics haven't claimed to speak from the author to confirm their interpretation is correct. So to think the critics are right you have to think the convo is a lie or the author is muddled and confused.
I think it's possible that Derek Thompson is just doing the same thing he is calling out.
4. Derek Thompson interpreted a short conversation with the author the way he wanted to hear it.
The author might have said a bunch of "nuanced details" in that conversation, and he took it as: "I knew it, author thinks their claims are bogus."
If I recall, I don't remember seeing any part of their conversation quoted word for word, or even the name of the author he contacted in the article. (though I might have just missed it)
> 1. Derek Thompson is flat out lying
It's this one. The person he called made a lengthy follow up post. It's clear Thompson purposely misrepresented the conversation.
It's helpful to understand why the "abundance" movement exists. Its only purpose is to stop the Democratic Party from addressing concentrated economic power. It's funded by the concentrated economic power.
This isn't an academic debate, it's an attempt to maintain power by a discredited group of people who recently presided over the collapse of the Democratic Party and are desperately casting around for a narrative where that's not what happened.
No, this article is saying that the sources are saying they never supported the original thing.
It’s a proof by falsification. It’s not saying necessarily that there isn’t some monopoly builder issue somewhere. It’s saying the current movement is based on complete bullshit.
"He said they said, so I talked to them, and they said otherwise".
That's what she said.
In the "he said, she said".
No it’s not. “He said, she said” applies to two people talking about an event and there is no root source of truth.
In this case there are direct researchers and the researchers are saying their work is being misrepresented.
This article is good, but the phrase "antitrust left" really turned me off. I am probably some kind of a leftist (I want higher taxes on rich people and a society much more welfare oriented with a substantial degree of labor and resource allocation performed democratically instead of by markets) but I don't know a single leftist who actually cares about this housing shit except to think that houses should be cheaper by any means necessary. Like the idea that there is an active contingent of leftists trying to construct some kind of defense of the current housing system or critique of reforms (in general) aimed at making it easier to build houses strikes me as truly bizarre.
There may be some environmentalists who have housing as a pet peeve or something, and there are lots of yuppies who want to defend their housing prices who might be liberal but I don't associate this position with leftism in any way.
I live in a very wealthy, extraordinarily progressive muni (almost certainly in the top 5 nationally), and my primary political project is zoning reform, and I assure you that left-NIMBYism is a thing, and that the "we should make blue state governments perform better and increase supply of things people want" thesis of "Abundance" (Thompson and Klein's book) is a bête noire among those leftists.
The argument isn't that the left broadly construed opposes housing legalization! Just that there's a prominent faction of them that do. Right-NIMBYs are a much bigger problem across the US.
Thompson recently recorded a podcast episode with Zephyr Teachout, taking the "we shouldn't do anything before we address antitrust" side of the argument; you can listen to it if you think "the antitrust left" isn't a real thing. Understand: the issue isn't antitrust; it's a totalizing worldview based purely on antitrust. Antitrust is probably super important! But where I live, zoning reform is much more important.
Keep in mind: Klein and Thompson's political project is a plan to organize the Democrats. They're not talking to the Republicans. Not in the sense they're talking to Democrats, at least. I don't think they could make that much clearer than they have.
Here in extremely liberal Portland, there are a huge number of people who genuinely believe that 'greedy developers' are the cause of the nationwide housing shortage, having talked themselves into the nonsense belief that building fewer homes makes people more money.
That belief has reached prominent political leaders as well. I listened to a bit of the Ocasio-Cortez/Tim Walz Madden livestream on Twitch, and they were talking about how something needed to be done about the greedy developers who were driving the housing shortage.
I have been doing YIMBY stuff for around 8 years now, and it does not map nicely onto any kind of left-right narrative.
There was one conservative dude who ran for city council here who was all about 'private property' and 'get rid of government regulations', who also ran against the idea of liberalizing zoning.
I've met left wing people who I agree with on many issues who will do the most spectacular, Olympic level mental gymnastics to avoid the notion that 'supply and demand' apply to housing.
There are moderate Democrats who are big backers of various reforms. And some on the far left who get that if you want Vienna style social housing, you also need Vienna style zoning and building regulations.
A former mayor here is a moderate Republican - he totally got what we were about and said some really nice things about welcoming new neighbors in one speech a few weeks after he met up with our YIMBY group.
It's just not an issue that - so far - has been slotted into the trench warfare that other issues have been.
It's dogmatic among the left that "market based solutions are bad". And because Abundance embraces market solutions, it must therefore be bad too.
Basically, all the arguments I've seen against Abundance tend either towards the ideological, or irrelevant. I tend to see very little empirical arguments.
No, the problem is when the markets are freer than the people.
I don't disagree with that. I think economic power getting concentrated in a relatively small number of hands is unequivocally bad.
That said, the Abundance argument for building more housing is that in many local housing markets, the pendulum has swung too far the other way in ways that are well-meaning but ultimately counterproductive. This very article makes the case that oligopolistic economic power is not the reason for unaffordable housing.
Tons of the critics of the book haven't even read it, because large portions of it are about making the government work better, not just using market-based solutions for all our problems.
Housing, though, could definitely use a better market with less constraints like zoning.
But you literally described the moderates being YIMBY and the more radical being NIMBY, which is left-right, but instead of left vs. right on pole ends opposing, it's the leftists and rights agreeing on NIMBY against the moderate centrists. Horseshoe theory strikes again. There is a growing populist frustration where citizens like both people like Tucker Carlson and Bernie but hate the moderate establishment. Low educated are frustrated with outcomes (ironically being NIMBY on housing is a primary cause) and go extreme compared to the educated moderates.
I also included a far left example who got it. I should have kept going with the examples because there are also plenty of moderates who do not want to rock the boat. The governor of CT vetoed their big housing bill this year.
It really does not map onto left-right.
Supply destruction to put a floor on prices is not an unknown phenomenon.
The effort to make it seem silly to think that there aren't enough houses because the industry whose job it is to build houses did not build enough houses is itself a little silly. Circumstantial as the evidence may be, it's logical to assume that they didn't because it was more profitable not to.
> Circumstantial as the evidence may be, it's logical to assume that they didn't because it was more profitable not to.
This willfully ignores evidence that community after community has actively passed laws to stop that industry from building more.
Chesterton's Fence: why do those laws exist? Because people thought they were necessary to stop housing construction (especially, but hardly exclusively, densification).
It's not a partisan thing - red states are full of NIMBYs and littered with HOAs too - but the largest cities in red states have happened to not be hit quite as hard yet because they are generally newer cities, with plenty of room to sprawl horizontally still, starting from a lower baseline.
I mean, in my local case, the Chesterton's Fence answer is pretty clearly and directly racism.
> Supply destruction to put a floor on prices is not an unknown phenomenon.
The business model of construction companies is to buy a piece of property, develop it and then sell it for something more than the cost of buying it plus the cost of developing it. Constraining supply increases the cost of property which they then have to pay in order to acquire properties to develop. It isn't really in their interest to increase their own costs.
The most significant way it could be is if they were buying lower density units and replacing them with higher density units, so they'd be selling more units than they're buying and therefore benefit from the price per unit increasing. But in order to benefit from that they'd need to be increasing rather than decreasing the supply, which is contrary to the premise of them doing the opposite.
> The effort to make it seem silly to think that there aren't enough houses because the industry whose job it is to build houses did not build enough houses is itself a little silly. Circumstantial as the evidence may be, it's logical to assume that they didn't because it was more profitable not to.
Suppose that it would be profitable to buy a single family home and replace it 10 condo units, except that there is a law prohibiting you from doing that. Then it would be more profitable not to build those units, since doing so is illegal. But who is to blame for this?
> The business model of construction companies is to buy a piece of property, develop it and then sell it for something more than the cost of buying it plus the cost of developing it. Constraining supply increases the cost of property which they then have to pay in order to acquire properties to develop. It isn't really in their interest to increase their own costs.
Let's say for a moment that this is close but not quite actually the business model.
Let's say that the construction companies have spent a long time buying up vacant lots, faster than they are developing them, such that they now have a large inventory of land and would not have costs go up to continue operating if they did what you say.
What would you expect would happen in that case?
At that point you've ceased to describe construction companies and are now describing real estate speculators while calling them construction companies.
Moreover, notice how little sense that business model makes. To do that you would be sinking capital into vacant lots that you're neither developing nor receiving rents from while paying both property taxes and opportunity costs. You're paying interest on the loan or could have been getting ~10%/year by putting your money into the stock market. A real construction company would be trying to minimize the period they're holding an unproductive property.
And even if you wanted to be a real estate speculator, how does that make you more money than investing in rental properties and then actually renting them out so you receive rental income on top of any price appreciation?
Meanwhile, what, if not for zoning rules and other regulations, is preventing anyone else from undoing your attempt to constrain supply by opening up a new construction company which is actually a construction company?
You must be drawing from experience in a specific locality in the US, probably a rural one, because what I described is how land sales in the largest cities in the US has worked for half a century.
Doing what I described in New York City is exactly how Donald Trump made an initial fortune back in the 80s. It's happening right now in Seattle.
The business model not making sense, is due to the incorrect assumptions you make. For one, that land or buildings in cities appreciate less quickly than the stock market.
> At that point you've ceased to describe construction companies and are now describing real estate speculators while calling them construction companies.
I'm not sure what you think the difference is in practice. There may exist some construction companies that don't engage in real estate speculation, they just aren't the big or most profitable ones. Which addresses:
> Meanwhile, what, if not for zoning rules and other regulations, is preventing anyone else from undoing your attempt to constrain supply by opening up a new construction company which is actually a construction company?
The fact that the most valuable land is owned by other construction companies who have more money because of the real estate speculation.
> Doing what I described in New York City is exactly how Donald Trump made an initial fortune back in the 80s.
The total value of NYC real estate is approximately $2.8T. Trump has a net worth of something like $5B. Even if all of that was invested only in NYC real estate (which it isn't), it would be less than 0.2% of the NYC real estate market, which is hardly enough to have market power.
> The business model not making sense, is due to the incorrect assumptions you make. For one, that land or buildings in cities appreciate less quickly than the stock market.
That doesn't appear to be accurate. Metro housing prices have increased by more than wages but not by more than e.g. the S&P 500.
> I'm not sure what you think the difference is in practice. There may exist some construction companies that don't engage in real estate speculation, they just aren't the big or most profitable ones.
You're just pointing out that real estate speculation has been more profitable than construction, which is exactly the problem -- we make construction too expensive, on purpose, which is what increases the profitability of speculation. That some companies do both is a poor excuse to blame the construction companies for what the speculators are doing.
> The fact that the most valuable land is owned by other construction companies who have more money because of the real estate speculation.
Nobody even owns most of the land in any major US city, much less all of it. The properties that could derive the largest increase in housing units would be to replace single family homes with multi-unit complexes and the majority of existing single-family homes are owner-occupied.
,"having talked themselves into the nonsense belief that building fewer homes makes people more money."
Can you show me an example of someone pushing this?
keep reading along in the comments, I've come across an example already
So people in comments are pushing it? That's not meaningful. I can find a Republican who pushes pedophilia would you act against Republicans because of that?
> Klein and Thompson's political project is a plan to organize the Democrats.
“Abundance” appeals to the financial backers of the Democratic Party because deregulation doesn’t threaten them. But our problems are much graver that what YIMBYism can address: authoritarianism, climate change, austerity, warmongering toward China.
It’s because the wealthy block left-wing populism that so many people have turned to right-wing populism. Which is only making our problems worse.
At this rate, it’s only a matter of time before society cracks. There’s a good chance it doesn’t end well for the financial backers of “abundance.”
"Abundance" directly addresses climate change in the book. The scenario it describes is that we need to electrify at a pace far beyond what we're doing today in order to find off climate change, but large scale clean energy projects are often stymied by red tape and legal challenges. Also lack of government investment in scientific research.
Politics is local and there's nothing more local than your housing values
> Keep in mind: Klein and Thompson's political project is a plan to organize the Democrats.
This is the crux of the opposition. It's not that leftists necessarily have a problem with zoning reform, I don't at least, its fine. It's that the "abundance" project is a play for control of the party by the same losers who gave us Biden and Kamala.
People on the left feel that we need to be speaking to economic problems that regular people face. "Think of the millionaire land developers" is a losing message even if it does indirectly help regular people 10 years later. It's not even actionable at the federal level.
Many leftists have a problem with zoning deregulation.
Housing supply is the biggest economic problem that regular people face.
Ezra Klein & Derek Thompson did not bring us Joe Biden, Ezra became one of the most critical mainstream journalists of Biden. Their politics are meaningfully different.
> Many leftists have a problem with zoning deregulation.
I've been in leftist housing advocacy circles. I studied urban planning.
1) Every leftist I know who cares about housing hates euclidean zoning
2) Every leftist I know who cares about housing hates down-zoning
3) Every urban planning class I took said that euclidean zoning is bad
Euclidean zoning is the principle land use regulation in the United States because it is supported by powerful people, landowners and yes property developers (who are also almost always land speculators.)
Thompson and Klein misrepresent euclidean zoning as a leftist project and then set it up as a wicker man to stuff with all the environmental and labor protections they want to torch.
I live and am politically active in a front-line municipality for these issues (Oak Park, IL --- the actual redlining bastion of the western suburbs, a 4.5 square mile gravity well for Cook County school funding so egregious it was one of the first examples in Johnny Harris's NYT "Blue States, You're The Problem video) and I'm telling you, straight out, leftist defenses of existing zoning rules are a very real thing. In fact, where I live, they are the entire defense of those zoning rules: progressives have a supermajority of the board.
Leftists are not solely or distinctively responsible for exclusionary zoning and housing restriction in the US. Nationally, they're not even the biggest problem. But in many jurisdictions, places that should be the vanguards and test cases for housing reform, they are the controlling factor.
Which is why Derek Thompson addresses them so directly. What would be the point of aiming these criticisms at Republican-controlled municipalities? They don't share these values to begin with! They're not listening!
Right now, we have two parties actively propping up home values and the interests of the upper middle class. Klein and Thompson propose: what if on this issue we had two parties?
I think that conflating "blue state" with leftist is incorrect. "Blue state" confidently implies "centrist" and "not too much on the right". It does include also leftists, but not just them.
The parties are asymmetric. "Red state" implies very much on the right and is much more radicalized then democrats. But democrats themselves are centrists and unlike the republicans, tend to push away more radical parts.
I guarantee you all your Oak Park neighbors are the type who were With Hillary in 2016 (probably calling Bernie a sexist) and voted for Biden and against progressive income tax in 2020. They are not leftists. You seem to be having some trouble understanding the difference between democrats, liberals, and leftists.
T&K are fundamentally dishonest about the role of euclidean zoning in american cities, who supports it and why it's so powerful. Their basic project is to strip environmental and labor protections by tying them to euclidean zoning and saying "it's all the same."
And by the way, they may get their way (Newsom is already forcing repeals of environmental protections in California while toasting Klein) but at the end of the day euclidean zoning will still be around, because it is supported by people who are way too powerful.
Another by the way: I remember fighting the big Chicago rezoning in 2004. They had us chasing our tails by trying to double the parking requirements and letting us fight to get them back down to where they were in the old code, feeling like we won a big victory.
"I guarantee you all your Oak Park neighbors are the type who were With Hillary in 2016"
Its both. That's the problem. In my neighborhood, the construction of any market rate housing will be blocked by Hillary voting land-owners and single family home owners and card-carrying Bernie Bros mad that a private developer even gets to set foot in the city.
It's this alliance that has basically blocked housing in most metro cities.
When it comes to 100% affordable housing, yes the Hillary voters are on their own, but those are like 1-2 headline causing projects. For every affordable housing project there are 10 market rate housing projects that never even see the light of day.
As an example when I was active in housing in Chicago one of the organizations that was with us on the left was a developer of affordable housing: https://www.bickerdike.org/
Several of the activist actually worked for this developer.
Real leftist housing rights supporters are not against developers. They are against for-profit, private equity, land banking speculators, and yeah nimby homeowners. In general we hated the Oak Park type nimby liberal more than we hated the right to be honest.
“leftist housing rights supporters are not against developers.”
They certainly are in my neighborhood.
https://www.ourneighborhoodvoices.com/48-hills-cost-of-growt...
The “private developer risk” the article derides is an enforceable approval timeline that lets private developers have bounded risk. Apparently that’s a bridge too far.
In a market system, Creating a system that is "against for profit" housing developers very predictively restricts housing supply & drives up the cost of living for everyone.
You couldn't be more wrong; this is absolutely Bernie country. In the primaries, it made Washtenaw County MI look like Maricopa County. No, I think I understand just fine what I'm talking about.
Again: this is one of the 5 most progressive municipalities in the country.
Speaking of Washtenaw County, as a resident, it is also "the leftists" that are protecting existing zoning and are the major NIMBYs. It is the "evil corporate right wingers" that want to build all kinds of housing, but are prevented from doing so. There is literally two ballot measures for next week where the left wing NIMBYs want to protect a "park" (which is literally a parking lot) from being turned into a larger library and actual green space, because we also want to build more housing as well above the library.
Sounds like you're just applying somewhat arbitrary purity rules to what falls into the "leftist" bucket or not.
I believe that for most people "leftists" means "on the left side of the political spectrum", and so, in the US, it would be a strict superset of democrats & Liberals. But for you, it sounds like it's only subset of these, based on some criteria you haven't made explicit.
Fair enough, but that's a somewhat non-standard definition.
It's standard among self-described leftists, to distinguish themselves from establishment liberals.
I'm not even very far left and I identify with the term because party leadership are all 80yo and out of touch.
"Liberal" is an epithet here too (I'm a liberal, for whatever that's worth).
For what it's worth back, a lot of the opposition towards "establishment libs" is based more on optics than policy IMO.
Voters feel ripped off by the establishment. Running on "we're the establishment and we're here to help" is a loser, and letting Trump be the rebel is malpractice.
I am a libertarian (anarcho-capitalist) but people do not know the differences and similarities to liberal, because both has the prefix "liber".
Both ideologies evolved from the same source of classical liberalism, and still share plenty in common today.
But liberals would definitely down-vote me if I talked about Rothbard and Mises. Why do you think that is?
Because they have a difference in opinion with you about the degree to which markets should be allowed to exclusively allocate resources?
I personally am in favor of free market. Are they? I do not shy away from being a minarchist either, to be honest.
No, that's not what “leftist" generally means, it means adherence to any of a broad grouping of anti-capitalist ideologies (the more widely recognizable being the various forms of socialism and communism). It overlaps a little bit with the progressive wing of the Democratic Party in the US, but beyond that is mostly outside of the US major party system. The only people who use “leftist" to describe a superset of the Democratic Party also use “socialist” and “communist” in the same way.
I think you're injecting your personal views into the definition, which don't align with the common meaning of the word.
Here's the definition of the word taken from macOS's built-in dictionary (New Oxford American Dictionary):
> leftist, noun: a person who has left-wing political views or supports left-wing policies.
> left-wing, noun: the section of a political party or system that advocates for greater social and economic equality, and typically favors socially liberal ideas; the liberal or progressive group or section
Anti-capitalist thought represents a subset, but is certainly not the sole marker of left-wing political thought.
Now, my _personal_ take on this is that western left-wing thinking and liberalism (in the moral philosophical sense) are deeply intertwined (given the Enlightenment and its values), but anti-capitalist thought is deeply illiberal in nature. It is this fundamental contradiction that leads to permanent infighting within the left-wing spectrum.
> I think you're injecting your personal views into the definition,
I think I'm injecting what I know from getting a degree in political science and a two and half subsequent decades of experience paying attention to how political terminology is used by scholarly, journalistic, popular, and activist sources across the political spectrum into the definition.
> Here's the definition of the word taken from macOS's built-in dictionary
And that's a tolerably decent definition for a relatively compact general dictionary, but it misses a lot of nuance; outside of activist sources using it as a slur for their opponents, it is not used in nearly the local-politics-relevant way that left/right (especially qualified with a national label, like "American left") is.
FWIW: Ezra Klein called for Biden to step down before most others and asked for a fast national convention (not Kamala). Broad brushstrokes are energy saving, but just incorrect.
> People on the left feel that we need to be speaking to economic problems that regular people face.
Housing is that.
This just sounds like you want populist things and the outcome doesn't matter. Like price controls and tariffs.
Its about the message. Centering the message on something that has indirect, timelagged effects and isnt even actionable at the federal level is terrible messaging strategy for the national party.
"The dairy industry ran ads saying milk was good for you for 20 years and sales went down. Then they tried 'got milk' and sales went up" https://youtu.be/keCwRdbwNQY?si=kc14Ms7ECxglNgbl
"Build more" is direct and actionable. Regulatory reform is only one dimension.
Up north, Carney ran on a platform of building 500k homes annually, approx double the rate of housing starts. That's direct and done at the federal level, with billions in financing. It's impossible to be less timelagged than that by way of policy. So-called "affordable housing" qua government funding development (price controls after the fact notwithstanding) still entails hoop jumping and waiting for approvals, they don't spring up the next day.
The effects of zoning reform where they're implemented are reflected quickly as well. See: Minneapolis.
The general trend I see is that the left attacks the "Abundance agenda" without having read about it. Either that or the fact that it isn't just about market solutions is deliberately ignored.
> "Build more" is direct and actionable. Regulatory reform is only one dimension.
I could get behind "build more" much more easily than "abundance". You're onto something there IMO.
Fair, and I have to give credence that messaging effectively is extremely important. It's not enough to be "right", you have to sway and win. Will quibbble that the left is not exactly known for message-discipline, what's popular with them does not often translate well to most voters.
I guess this is a bit definitional, but I do not think of "very wealthy, extraordinarily progressive" people as typically leftist. I think of them as liberal and only in the American brain is that associated with leftism, so much so that we usually distinguish between "leftists" and "liberals" rhetorically. With, say, Hillary Clinton, being a classic American liberal and Bernie Sanders being more like a leftist. If you visit the DSA contingent I doubt you'd find anyone per se against zoning revisions to build more housing. Eg, Mamdani had literally building more housing as a part of his platform.
Leftists tend to feel very little solidarity with wealthy progressives and don't really vibe with their political interests, in general. It seems really weird that the specific label of "leftist" is being thrown around in this context. Especially in the context of organizing the Democrats where there is a meaningful and material difference between liberal and leftist.
Again, if you try to collapse this down to "leftists" vs "Derek Thompson", you're totally missing the point. Thompson's rhetorical adversary here are "people who believe we shouldn't do the zoning and envelope reforms required to increase the supply of housing", a subset of whom are on the political left and thus in his target audience: his term for them --- fairly applied! --- is "the antitrust left", but you could (like I do) call them "left-NIMBYs" and be in the same rhetorical place.
Most leftists gag over current anti-housing laws (I wish that were true of the right, but right-YIMBYs make up a tiny minority of the political right).
Right-YIMBYs are a tiny minority, but have you seen one in person? Truly a majestic, noble creature. You know they will fiercely stand their own ground but at the same time also go to extreme lengths to avoid putting their noses where they don’t belong.
Long thought extinct, sightings have been reported.
Mamdani - rent control. Dean Preston - NIMBY. UK Greens Party - NIMBY. Australian Greens Party - NIMBY.
Explain?
UK Greens aren't NIMBYs. They're against doing more of what's being done across UK cities already - which is building generic boxy blocks of cheap housing that look like they fell out of Minecraft, and selling them for unreasonable prices.
Many of the flats end up in the hands of landlords, who charge even more unreasonable rents.
There is no sense in which that's a workable long-term solution to the housing problem.
The Green pitch is "That's clearly not working, let's not do more of it." Which has nothing in common with "We don't want anyone to build anything anywhere."
Dehydrated man, after drinking one glass of water, rejects more water, reasoning that he's still thirsty.
Thats being a nimby in all but name. The UK does not build flats relative to its needs.
Uk greens are unfortunately nimbys. They even shut down solar farms and things you would think they would be in favour of.
> Mamdani - rent control
Mamdani wants to freeze rents of housing that is already under rent stabilization. He is also an advocate for reform and deregulation, and working backwards from outcomes. He has been talking to people from the construction industry and one of their main concerns is predictable time scales. He seems very pragmatic.
In the last election, Australia's Green Party was the only party whose housing plan involves actually building homes.
The major parties went with throwing more money at the problem.
Talk vs action. The Australian Greens opposed Australia's build-to-rent legislation. They didn't oppose the entire legislation. They opposed the one part of the legislation that would have helped the problem.
Aside from the fact that the few policies they made explicit in their platform would actually be counter-productive to getting more supply (such as National-level rent freezes), they also don't have a good track record at the local level when it comes to housing.
I've been very involved in council-level politics where repeatedly the Greens members were aligning themselves with the right-wing members ("ratepayers rights"-type groups) when it came to delaying/blocking development permits, enforcing parking requirements, preventing/delaying rezoning, etc. They fundamentally don't understand the issue at all. All talk, no substance.
And that's before we get to the CFMEU matter, which I think was the final blow for them during the last election.
My guess is that the "leftist critique" isn't one of not wanting new houses built, but of not wanting extensive government subsidies and political energy to go to builders and other groups who will not solve the problem, a la our storied history with broadband subsidies.
This pitched debate may very well simply represent an attempt to forestall action by bogging efforts down in debate over what's effective or correct, of course. It's worked for any number of groups looking to forestall what seems like an obvious and inevitable solution: reducing lead exposure by banning its use in consumer products, reducing tobacco-related illness by making it difficult and more uncomfortable to partake, and, in our case, making housing affordable by letting prices fall.
It's a disturbing trend that extremely complex issues are framed as a 'symptom' of broad political leanings. At the very least, it's a distraction and disservice to their own good argument, when an otherwise-intelligent narrative constantly reverts back to the polarisation "it's mostly those Others, from the Other Side".
Just let arguments stand on their own merits. The minute an article includes the term "lefties" or "righties", it's gone wrong imo.
This is one of those extremely important points that we say every once in a while and then forget to emphasize. Opposing good ideas or supporting bad ideas because they somehow get tagged into weird ideological buckets along with completely unrelated issues is a big reason why our political system is so dysfunctional.
Excellent comment. I agree that not many leftists support the current housing system. Probably only some existing home owners are excited about how it works today - they may want home prices to stay high. I'm lucky to be a home owner but I also see that the current system is incredibly destructive, having not enough homes and very high home purchase prices is really hard on people. We should not have to spend so much of our income pursing a home.
"there are lots of yuppies who want to defend their housing prices who might be liberal but I don't associate this position with leftism in any way"
People tend to call the Democrats the left, as they're at least somewhat leftward of the Republicans. It's at least easier for discussion purposes than speaking of the right and the other right.
Yeah, I get it. But we also use liberal and I think in this particular case its worth drawing the distinction between these two "camps" of the democratic party.
The meaning of liberal and conservative has shifted so much over time that the term is now useless. The original meaning of liberal was about not killing you neighbor if they were a different religion - from which we get freedom of religion. That slowly expanded to things like freedom for slaves and women voting.
You're describing classical liberalism. The meaning of the term liberalism in the US switched to social liberalism back in the great depression (unless specified with a qualifier). It has remained roughly constant for as long as most people on this site have been alive. Though I will grant that the policies social liberals support have changed since then.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classical_liberalism https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_liberalism
This is Phil Ochs describing liberals in 1966
In every American community, you have varying shades of political opinion. One of the shadiest of these is the liberals. An outspoken group on many subjects. Ten degrees to the left of center in good times, ten degrees to the right of center if it affects them personally.
They haven't changed.
1966 is still modern. The liberals I'm describing go back much farther. The decleration of independence is perhaps their most famiuos work though even then things were changing
The impression i get as an outsider is that liberals are basically republicans that don't hate minorities.
No. Republicans believe in full privatization of schools, Social Security, and Medicare, in flat taxation, the abolition of the regulatory state, the replacement of government-provided services with cash vouchers, and policymaking devolved out to the states. Liberals generally commit to none of these beliefs.
I've gone out of my way here not to make value judgements; Republicans have coherent arguments for why all these policies are better. "Republicans who don't hate minorities" is not a good way to describe liberals, who make up the majority of the Democratic party, the "other" American party that opposes the Republicans.
> Liberals generally commit to none of these beliefs.
Liberals fucking love charter schools, 401ks, they voted against the Illinois progressive income tax (Biden won Illinois big when that got defeated). I could go on. You're so far off the scent.
They are usually also ok with LGBQT people, which is good. Realistically, I think liberals are just not particularly reflective about the economic realities our system creates. Americans are drowning in propaganda, of which the right wing sort which characterizes Trumpism is only the most obvious. Add on top of that that the 20th Century makes a pretty compelling case that leftism as imagined in that century isn't a going concern, its not really a sign of a major moral failing that one might be a "republican who isn't into cruelty."
Also, in fairness, there are a lot of republicans who aren't into cruelty too. Its just that the jerks are an important part of the current right coalition.
> houses should be cheaper by any means necessary.
That's basically the position Klein has in the book Abundance, but everywhere I go online the left automatically comes out hostile to it or anything that embraces market solutions. Your anecdote might be true but beyond your small sample size it doesn't seem representative. Broadly, they want populist solutions. This is why Sanders and Warren gave a lukewarm criticism of tariffs, and why they like price controls for grocery stores despite their having small margins, and risk of food shortages it could bring.
If the problem is in our midst, we must acknowledge it.
Local boards in blue cities (California in particular) have blocked new housing for decades using every tool at their disposal. Places that lean left have anomalous rent growth. Places that lean left approve fewer new houses. Places that lean left have anomalously high building costs. This is a matter of written record. Embarrassingly, the only US city to buck this trend is Austin, a city in red-Texas known for a recent influx of radicalized right wingers.
> yuppies who want to defend their housing prices
Yuppies, but definition, are young professionals. They don't own houses, they rent. They are the ones paying the high rental costs as neighborhoods gentrify. They want more housing. The 35+ home owning population is the one that blocks new housing.
> I don't associate this position with leftism in any way
The leftist - YIMBY conflict shows up on 3 fronts.
First, Leftists have issues with the free-market. They reject market-housing solutions as a way to create new housing.
Second, Leftists like Govts and regulation. YIMBY wants less regulation, so they can maximize for space and price. Regulated Govt built housing is both more expensive and worse than what free markets already provide.
Third, and the most important, is a subtle accusation: "Leftists act just as selfish as everyone else, once they are the ones in power". Having come from an ex-socialist country, I have a deeply rooted belief in this accusation. Not that leftists are worse people, but that people are people, and systems should work around their imperfections rather than having expectations of ideological virtue.
The anti-trust left is a nice way to point a sub-section of the left which uses regulation, social outrage and critiques of free-market as a way to get personally beneficial outcomes, at the expense of the wider population. I understand - #NotAllLeftists. YIMBY & abundance advocates themselves have left-sympathies. But the anti-trust left is a non-trivial number and the conversation must start from acknowledging that they exist.
You can just look at the empirical evidence. Where are homes being built? Primarily Texas, Florida, Nevada, Arizona. Where are they not being built? New York, California, Illinois.
Do with that information what you please.
> resource allocation performed democratically instead of by markets
The economy is too complex to be planned in details and such attempts at control have failed again and again.
I think some people also miss that, crucially, the market is not an external force, it is just the aggregate of each individual's need, decision, and desires. SO in a way a working market is as free and democratic as can be.
I like to say the market is undefeated thoughout history.
You can add regulations or limitations that incentivize the market one way or another to achieve social goals, but these distortions add up. And when there are too many distortions in the market, it stops acting how you want it to act, and starts acting how it will. And usually, that means negative unintended consequences.
What is it like living a life completely ignorant of reality?
If you'd like to learn, feel free to ask chatgpt on the leftish pushback against abundance. Or historical examples of leftists blocking housing projects. Or environmentalists prioritizing niche interests over those of the general community. There are many, many examples.
Abundance YIMBYism has many shortcomings. It doesn't address the risk of gentrification and displacement, the slow and unproven trickle-down effect of market-rate housing, or the critical need for direct public housing to serve low-income communities. Journalistic ideologues deserve little praise for dismantling the weakest counterarguments of their opponents while ignoring core criticisms.
Abundance YIMBYism in housing decreases gentrification. Gentrification happens when the only housing that is affordable is in low-income neighborhoods. If there is plenty of housing supply throughout a city, the demand for those low-income neighborhoods is lower.
Nothing in the Abundance agenda states that direct public housing is bad, per se. The argument is that what we need is more housing, and the only realistic way for that to happen is to make housing easier and cheaper to build, typically by easing zoning restrictions and other things like parking minimums that drive up costs.
These are ironically the weakest counterarguments to abundance housing. Rich people don't move to a city because of their love of 5 over 1 buildings. Otherwise, developers could just build them in rural Kansas and everyone would be happy. They move the jobs and culture, which doesn't change regardless of any new housing built. Making it easier to build privately owned housing also makes it easier to build publicly owned housing. Public housing projects are also delayed by permitting and environmental reviews and have to pay for inflated land prices and parking spaces.
Jobs and culture are indeed reasons for people to move to the city, but it’s odd to claim that housing types don’t factor into consumer demand. Because housing types do, developers are incentivized to build housing that is the most profitable (such as less dense and luxury housing) not housing that best serves the needs of low income people (as more expensive units make more money). At best we can only expect minor effects from deregulatory mechanisms.
Which brings us to public housing. The main obstacle to public housing is funding these projects. Reasonable deregulation of public housing projects makes sense, sure, even though that is not the main blocker.
But public housing deregulation is not the argument of abundance, it’s YIMBY deregulation. Its proponents claim that it’s market based supply/demand effects that need to be unleashed by deregulation to provide adequate housing. Because “abundance” holds that YIMBY deregulation is the solution - not public housing - it misdirects efforts to address housing issues faced by low income people.
What YIMBY deregulation do you view as problematic? YIMBYs aren't calling for more billionaire row towers and multifamily to single family townhouse conversions. They are calling for more apartment complexes, ADUs, and other utilitarian forms of housing.
New housing developments only gets branded as "luxury" because that's the way that housing is priced right now. It costs the city of San Francisco over $1 million to build a single affordable housing unit. Blindly throwing more money at the problem doesn't help. SF is spending $846 million on housing, over $1000 per resident. Despite this, homelessness is actually increasing. Increasing funding is something that should be prioritized after you made development as frictionless as possible. If public housing is cheaper and faster to build, more voters would be willing to support funding it.
I gave SF a lot of shit, but to be clear, they're the least problematic city in the Bay Area, as they at least allow some denser development.
> It doesn't address the risk of gentrification and displacement
This is a puzzling critique because it seems very much in the wheelhouse of "abundance YIMBYism" to advocate for cheaper housing--an argued byproduct of which is that fewer people are displaced. It probably changes the problem statement of gentrification since, if housing is abundant and displacement is low, there's not much to distinguish "gentrification" from just "investing in the neighborhood".
>the critical need for direct public housing to serve low-income communities
This isn't a problem caused by YIMBYism, nor one whose solutions are obstructed by it. We could by that reason malign it for not solving heart palpitations or cancer too.
This “abundance” ideology which aims to influence Democratic policy promotes YIMBYism to address housing shortages by deregulating construction. It’s this claimed benefit I’m criticizing. Public housing does address this issue, which is why I bring it up.
Similarly, gentrification is enabled by this narrow focus on YIMBYism. Upzoning increases land value. Developers build profitable market rate houses there. This increases prices in the neighborhood leading to gentrification. This in turn leads to displacement - a key phenomenon that this ideology purports to address.
My issue is not YIMBYism in particular but that it’s offered as a solution to these problems.
You are arguing as if buildling more make things worse, when in fact, this is not the case. The opposite of buildling more is building less. Building less will increase existing price a lot more on an existing neighborhood than building a new buildling will ever do.
When there's not enough housing for people to live in, people start competing on rent and bidding wars on purchases, this drives price very fast.
That's why you have to build more. To avoid the biggest issue which is a housing shortage.
Is that the ONLY solution? Of course not! Public housing is great. But the same things that prevent YIMBY policies is the same thing that prevents public housing to be built. When you advocate for more zoning to prevent new condos in your neighborhood, it's not just new condos at market price that will be prevented, it's a whole range of housing.
>When there's not enough housing for people to live in,
In the country I live in, our population is a shrinking. Quite literally. There would be fewer people today than last year, and will be fewer people next year than this year. Except...
"Upzoning increases land value. Developers build profitable market rate houses there"
Unless you are upzoning ONLY in low-income neighborhoods, this doesn't add up. The assumption is that upzoning makes development more attractive. But this would apply to the entire city, and would therefore increase housing supply outside those low-income neighborhoods as well, which actually reduces the propensity for displacement.
> Public housing
You can't have Vienna style public housing without having Vienna style zoning codes and building codes.
Most of the housing in Vienna would be illegal to build in like 99% of American cities.
Public housing construction typically has to follow the law as well, so how does it help in cities where increasing housing units is heavily restricted, and outright banned in 90%+ of the city? YIMBY upzoning is strictly necessary no matter what funder you want for development.
Market rate housing doesn't need to trickle down. Most NIMBY regulations focus on the prevention of building low-value housing. Let developers flood the market with small, high density units, and they'll be cheap right away.
Developers are incentivized to build whatever units are most profitable, not what lowest income people need. More expensive units make more money.
Besides that, land and construction are both limited resources that constrain developers ability to “flood the market with small, high density units.” For example in high-land-value urban areas, developers need to build expensive units to be able to make a profit.
Yes, developers are incentivized to build whatever units are most profitable, but the price per square foot is much higher for small units than for large units, so without regulations prohibiting high-density projects, you'll end up with far more units for a given amount of resources. Instead of building 20 units of 2,000 sq ft, if allowed a developer could instead build 40 units of 1,000 sq ft, for a similar cost, and sell them for less per unit but more per square foot. Without using any more land, foundation, or roofing, and only needing extra fixtures and interior walls, it would reduce the labor and materials needed per unit, while increasing the income.
It’s more than just extra fixtures and interior walls but bathrooms, kitchens, plumbing, and HVAC - some of the most expensive parts of a build. For example if a developer has 4,000 square foot of land, and it costs $1.6 million to build 4 units selling at $2.4 million total - vs costing $1.2 million to build a luxury unit selling at $2.2 million, they will build the single luxury unit. The overall price for the construction is lower, the price per square foot is lower, but they make more profit.
This is exactly what the developers say. Low income housing, which is unaffordable even on middle class income, is only viable if heavily subsidized. So the tax payers have to pay the developer to take the guaranteed loss. And even then, 3000 rent on a low income studio apartment is only possible for low income people who have subsidies. So the tax payers pay the developers to build it, and then pay the tenants to rent, and people have the gall to refer to this as the “free market” solution.
> It’s more than just extra fixtures and interior walls but bathrooms, kitchens, plumbing, and HVAC - some of the most expensive parts of a build.
That isn't necessarily saving anything. A 4000 square foot unit could very plausibly have four baths and HVAC zones, especially if it's a luxury unit.
Meanwhile not doing that is exactly the sort of thing the existing rules nefariously prohibit. Suppose you want to turn that 4000 square feet into eight studio units with a dorm-style shared kitchen and bathrooms. Now you've significantly lowered your construction costs while increasing the total you can sell for because you're offering eight units, so that becomes the most profitable thing as long as there are enough people who want lower rents more than space, except that hardly anywhere allows you to do it that way.
A developer in our example would still profit by offering a luxury unit with 3 bathrooms instead of 4. But you’re right that there will often be multiple baths and HVAC systems in a luxury unit - although electrical, plumbing, and fire suppression systems still scale up with the number of units.
And kitchens remain a problem. Your dorm-style kitchen layout is creative, but the problem with this idea is that there is very little demand for dorm-style housing. Developers are able to charge higher prices for more conventional layouts - where the demand is - which is what they will build even in the absence of regulation.
Markets can handle some things well but the inability to provide merit goods (like housing) is one of their shortcomings. Unfortunately we need policies with more scope and ambition than YIMBYism if we want to tackle society’s larger problems.
> A developer in our example would still profit by offering a luxury unit with 3 bathrooms instead of 4.
Would they though? Having one fewer bathroom would lower costs but also lower the value of the unit. Meanwhile it doesn't actually cost $400,000 to build one bathroom.
> Your dorm-style kitchen layout is creative, but the problem with this idea is that there is very little demand for dorm-style housing.
There is very little supply of dorm-style housing, because building it is banned. And it's banned because there is demand for it, especially when rents are high. Why would they bother to ban something nobody was going to do? If nobody wants it then there is no harm in getting rid of the ban because nobody will build it anyway, right?
> Developers are able to charge higher prices for more conventional layouts - where the demand is - which is what they will build even in the absence of regulation.
Let's suppose that's true in some cases. There is currently a lot of demand in some area for 4000 square foot units so that they're more profitable to build than four 1000 square foot units.
Then if you let them build 4000 square foot units, they do, and satisfy the demand for those units. At which point the price of those units comes down because the supply has increased. Which makes it more profitable to build smaller units going forward, because now that's where the unsatisfied demand remains -- in your example, the increase in supply of 4000 square foot units causes their price to fall from $2.2M to $1.9M while the four 1000 square foot units are still going for $2.4M and are now the more profitable alternative even if they cost more to build.
> Markets can handle some things well but the inability to provide merit goods (like housing) is one of their shortcomings. Unfortunately we need policies with more scope and ambition than YIMBYism if we want to tackle society’s larger problems.
The thing that I find suspicious is that if you actually want some specific thing, like more smaller units, there are obvious ways to make that happen. Just provide a tax credit for building smaller units, or a credit per-unit so that one 4000 sq ft unit gets you one credit and four 1000 sq ft units get you four credits each in the same amount. The result is going to be more smaller units than the market would otherwise demand, which is what you wanted, right?
But meanwhile people start proposing things like having the government not just build but actually operate rental properties, or constrain who is allowed to live in them, which tend to create nasty problems like "sorry, you make $1000/year more than the threshold for affordable housing so now there's a cliff where your rent goes up by $1000/month", or create a handful of housing projects that turn into an area of concentrated poverty while not actually providing enough housing for everyone who needs it and in particular not getting housing costs down for middle-income people.
And those policies strike me as attempts to disguise a desire to not solve the problem. They're token efforts to be able to claim that something is being done on paper so that housing costs can remain high in practice.
So I guess what I'm asking is, what are you actually proposing? And how is it better than some combination of "remove policies that inhibit construction" and "provide tax incentives to build more housing"?
If you wanna break it down by "systems" the most expensive part is the regulatory compliance you need to engage in before you start.
People shit on the healthcare industry for being written into law and they shit on the credit processors for taking a cut of every transaction but the degree to which various flavors of paper pushing engineers are required by law to be given a cut of every single creation, alteration and major repair of a structure is mind boggling.
And this racket is a large part of what puts the squeeze on low end projects.
If it takes me $50k of engineering to be granted a $100 permit to do another $50k of tree clearing and dirt work on a lot then whatever I build needs to make up for that. If not for BS compliance those numbers would be something like $5k, $100, $20k
All of this expense, levied upon literally every single project everywhere, all to prevent the 1/100 or 1/1000 case where someone does something (that they likely knew was) stupid and causes a runoff problem or whatever, that could likely be mitigated by the same costs after the fact where and when it happens.
And this is before you start discussing all the areas where industry and company lobbyists have got their clients inserted into the IBC at the expense of the public.
there are a ton of build code issues in the US that raise the cost of construction without substantionally improving benefits. As an example, I am in Europe right now, most apartment buildings here have single stair entry and smaller elevators, both of which are prevented by US building regs for bad reasons. Fixing these regs would expand the market for new construction at the low end (lower costs for marginal opportunities) and the high end (makes 4 unit condos feasable).
Western Democracies usually (always?) have planning laws that allow for democratic (ie for the benefit of the people) building plans. In short, we don't have to allow developers to choose.
We could equally levy pressure to improve quality.
In UK, house price inflation has well outstripped material and wage inflation, we should be getting exceptional housing that fits the need of the demos.
> the slow and unproven trickle-down effect of market-rate housing
Slow and unproven? Supply and demand is the most reliable law of economics. Cities like Austin that are building market rate housing are actively seeing affordability improve.
Furthermore, even if it wasn't sufficient, abundance YIMBYism would still be helpful and necessary.
> gentrification displacement is not a thing
Studies show the same percent of people move out of neighborhoods regardless of whether or not the neighborhood is gentrified. They also show that those low-income people who stay in a gentrified neighborhood see their incomes rise. Those low-income people who are in a neighborhood that is not gentrified see their income go down.
Your intuitions are wrong following them is making the problems worse.
https://www.youtube.com/@justine-underhill
Your arguments are not backed up by anything.
> gentrification and displacement
These are not actual issues with regards to housing being too expensive. These are pet issues divorced from economics.
> the slow and unproven trickle-down effect of market-rate housing
This is absolutely proven in the data, and even a basic thought experiment using the pigeon hole principle will show that more houses means the prices drop of existing stock.
> critical need for direct public housing to serve low-income communities
Why is this a critical need? More housing being built could also mean more public housing, but removing zoning and land use regulations doesn't hurt this.
It seems you are more disappointed that your personal pet political issues are being ignored in favor of a market solution to house prices.
> gentrification
Gentrification isn't actually a problem if it doesn't force lower income residents to leave. They wouldn't be forced to leave if their housing wasn't some of the only options for higher income people to inhabit
What it doesn’t address is the role of finance and the financial sector in explaining why things are the way they are.
It’s not just a missing detail it’s fatal to their entire argument.
Which isn’t an accident, since the goal of the “abundance movement” is to stop the actual progressive movements that want to take on concentrated financial power.
This is a bad-faith description of the abundance movement.
The central thesis of the abundance movement is this: Every time we make a regulation, we are making a tradeoff. In the case of housing, an example would be "zoning only for single family housing". It's trading off affordability for quieter neighborhoods. Another might be "public housing contracts must favor minority-owned contractors". It trades off affordability for the development of a disadvantaged constituency.
Over time, many of these such regulations accumulate. Environmental reviews. Impact studies. Public comment periods. And while every individual regulation might be well meaning, the totality of them creates market distortions that disincentivize or even utterly prevent the very thing we're trying to accomplish.
So, the abundance movement looks at these and says we need to think about these in terms of tradeoffs, and pare back the regulations that have bad tradeoffs. This is often derided by critics as deregulation which makes developers more profitable. While that might be a side effect, it's not the main reason. It's deregulation to remove market distortions that, in the case of housing, constrain supply and therefore drive up housing costs.
The abundance movement IS a bad faith movement. It’s entirely the creation of the donor/billionaire set and its rollout is designed to stop the Democratic Party from taking the obvious next step of tackling concentrated economic power, following the utter and abject failure of corporate centrism.
There’s literally no ambiguity here, the abundance summits feature obvious had faith actors like Andreesen.
This kind of thing has been going on for decades. It’s the same playbook as Third Way and New Dems and so on.
These people’s ideas led to the current political situation we’re in today. They don’t want to be held accountable for that.
So we get this Calvinball style collection of principles that change weekly but never seem to ever even consider doing something that Reid Hoffman and Mark Cuban and their friends don’t like.
This is a purely ad-hominem attack.
Ad-hominem is a great way to understand a group of people that are obviously full of shit and engaged in self-serving advocacy.
Unless you think this guy is actually interested in building more housing:
https://fortune.com/2022/08/13/atherton-california-housing-m...
Maybe I'm missing context but this would be the exact opposite of the Abundance agenda.
If your point is that Andreesen advocates for abundance policies, but then also opposes them in classic NIMBY fashion when it affects him, well, that's an indictment of Marc Andreesen, not Abundance mentality. In fact, your point inadvertently seems to say "Marc Andreesen is not Abundance enough!" since he is engaged in anti-Abundance activity in lobbying against multi-family housing.
It’s Andreesens all the way down.
The abundance movement is not a grassroots group of people, it’s a lab creation of billionaire/donor types. Andreesen is one of them, that’s the context for the link. Reid Hoffman is another.
These people want to find a way to distract from the appeal of progressive policies of the kind put forward by Lina Khan and others who actually attempt to directly take on the concentrated economic power that’s strangling normal people in this country. They’re the ones doing the strangling.
It’s propaganda, a PR project by oligarchs. It’s fundamentally done in bad faith and there’s absolutely nothing obligating me to take them at face value.
Nothing in your assertion addresses the actual merits of the abundance mindset as described in Klein and Thompson's book.
If you want to argue that Andreesen is co-opting or manipulating those ideas for his own ends, that's something else.
The abundance mindset as described in Klein and Thompson's book fails to address the actual problem that prevents abundance, as defined by them.
The problem that they've identified is real and obvious: people can't afford housing, things are increasingly precarious for the middle class, and so on.
The actual solution is that concentrations of market power have to be broken up, we are being strangled by monopolies and cartels, and the way we run the macro economy is in favor of the financial sector. We prioritize returns on large scale capital over absolutely everything else.
There's no way to address the actual problems without doing things differently. In order for regular people to win, some powerful people will have to lose, at least a little.
Those powerful people don't want this, so they're happy to fund Klein and Thompson and a slew of other think tanks and politicians to advance the narrative that there's some other way to do things. Mostly the usual tactic of "blame it on the hippies" that has been so effective for them since the 1990's and the Clinton administration.
Given all this context, there aren't really any merits to the argument of the book. It's the equivalent of someone arguing with you that better diet and exercise is the way to fix an open stab wound. Also they're the person that stabbed you.
Like diet and exercise are good ideas. But if I'm like hey what the fuck you're a murderer and you come back with something about how that's an ad-hominem, and also why are you disagreeing with the ideas that diet and exercise are good, I don't really need to engage with you on the merits of those arguments right this second.
What we need to do first is take the knife away.
> slow and unproven trickle-down effect of market-rate housing, or the critical need for direct public housing to serve low-income communities
Your claims are unsubstantiated. I've only ever seen vague critiques by anti-abundance commentators. If you think YIMBY is wrong, then be specific in your criticisms. There is nothing special about direct public housing. It is housing built by the govt. The govt gets caught between regulations, is slower, wasteful & pays higher wages to workers. It's market rate housing but worse in every way. Chicago [1] is contemporary proof that Govt. can't build housing.
On the other hand, YIMBY Austin [2] has seen slower rent growth despite rapid migration over the last decade.
> gentrification and displacement
You realize this is a home ownership problem right ?
YIMBY doesn't cause gentrification. It is a balm to reduce the pain of inevitable gentrification. A neighborhood gentrifies because increased economic opportunity draws new transplants in. If housing supply is limited, then existing residents are going to get priced out one way or another. As a neighborhood starts to gentrify, YIMBY redevelopment projects roll in & existing landowners see large windfalls. It's great if you own. Gentrification is only bad if you rent. Even then, YIMBY redevelopment projects increase housing supply, giving locals an option to move to home ownership and reduce the magnitude of rent spikes. It curbs the supply crunch.
Anti-abundance people don't have a coherent alternative other than rent control. Rent control has an unbeaten track record of failure in the western world. Either, prices diverge [3] and create a rental class system between new tenants and old residents. Or, they turn dilapidated like America's famous inner-city 'projects'.
There are 2 ways to look at it: the empathetic lens vs the pragmatic lens.
We've looked through the empathetic lens for the existing residents. But, from a pragmatic lens, why do they deserve to live exactly where they want to ? Yes, A city should provide sufficient housing to earning families within its boundaries. But, why should a person deserve to live on a specific block over another ? The existing renter had a choice to lock a spot down by buying it, and they didn't. Now, the renter is owed no such right. The newcomer and the old renter both have a valid claim to reside on the land, and rent control takes an unequal stance by favoring the older renter over the newcomer. Even in its best rendition, rent control is discriminatory. And rent control's best rendition lives in the same realm as Santa Claus or True Communism, called 'things that never happen'. At least YIMBYism buys time and opportunity for the older renter to figure out their next move.(opportunity to buy new housing, time because rents creep up slower)
[1] https://citythatworks.substack.com/p/construction-costs-for-...
[2] https://constructioncoverage.com/research/cities-with-the-la...
[3] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/30/rents-...
What does it mean that “so much of what we read is […] barely reported”?
That the people writing it do very little of their own reporting. "Reporting" isn't writing or thinking; it's the act of collecting external facts. Calling a primary source on the phone is reporting; traveling to a location and observing events is reporting. Synthesizing existing facts and reporting is not reporting. It's still journalism! Reporting is a specific practice within journalism.
It's copy-pasted from Twitter, or it's explicitly a press release from a company with minor rewording. There is no digging for the truth because the news can't afford any labor
This has nothing to do with journalism. Both sides of this argument are advocates for points of view.
Yes, and I found Derek Thompson and Ezra Klein to be very credible on Lex Fridman:
Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson: Politics, Trump, AOC, Elon & DOGE - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTPSeeKokdo
I like when the right and left can actually talk to each other -- solutions are more likely to emerge that way.
They had a meta-discussion of the fact that Fridman has been "coded" by the left (Thompson and Klein firmly representing the left).
I get that, because Fridman can be so uncritical that it can rise to the level of shilling.
But I also find it curious that many on the left won't sit for 3 hours with him. In contrast, Thompson and Klein sat for 3 hours, which shows me that they have something to say which stands up to scrutiny.
They have something to say that doesn't have to be carefully boxed into 30 or 60 minutes of talking points.
---
Related: even though Fridman can be annoyingly uncritical, I think this also serves the purpose of journalism. Because he gets the primary sources to talk freely.
For example, IMO this part an interview with Demis Hassabis is revealing. He asks if they're worried they will run out of high quality training data:
https://youtu.be/-HzgcbRXUK8?t=3931
From my perspective, Hassabis gives a mealy-mouthed answer about generating synthetic data of the right distribution, and then they change the subject. I would bet there's a lot more to it than that. If they had a good angle of attack, I feel like he'd be more excited to talk about it, and say something more substantive.
I guess you can argue that he's being cagey to not reveal anything to competition, but it seems like a real point of concern to me.
The rest of the interview is talking about AGI time frames and similar sales talk. Whereas my takeaway is that there's significant worry that LLMs are limited by training data, because they interpolate from it (rather than extrapolating), and are inefficient at using it.
Fridman is on the other end of the spectrum I'm describing.
You said heavily processed and barely-reported
If you want to say Fridman's content is "barely-reported", i.e. he barely does journalism, then I won't really argue.
But the interviews are NOT heavily processed, and that's precisely why some on the left won't sit with him. (But not Thompson and Klein, because they actually have something to say.)
So ironically, it kinda balances out. Being credulous attracts guests who talk almost as if they are off the record
I'm not making a value judgement. There are analysts and opinion writers I enjoy reading and get a lot of value from. But hosting a podcast interview with someone is basically the opposite of shoe-leather reporting. I guess if you did "stitch incoming" every couple minutes and cut to Fridman calling someone else to have conversations with other sources about whatever claim his primary guest just made, you'd be getting closer.
My point is: some of the prevailing take on HN about journalism probably comes from the fact that we tend to pay much more attention to the Fridmans and much less to shoe-leather reporters.
That's all!
Much later: a funny thing I could point out here is that the same thing I'm saying about Fridman also applies to Ezra Klein, Thompson's "Abundance" co-author --- I like Klein a lot!
I think there's journalistic value to showing a raw conversation on a podcast. It's closer to the primary source than calling them on the phone and writing down parts of the conversation.
If the interviewer is a bit credulous, then we can take that into account.
I don't need other opinions to be inserted in the same show, because it's not the only show I watch. I get different viewpoints from others. (And Klein's show happens to be a primary example of that)
Journalism is about presenting a topic, not about presenting a person. I don’t care about Elon Musk as a person. I don’t care about his opinions on lawn care or cooking eggs. But in a story about self driving car technology I want to hear his input and the input of Ford and GM and Waymo and Uber and suppliers and academics and regulators and users. Compiling all those sources and presenting a narrative on the topic of self driving cars is journalism.
Giving one person an uncritical platform for three hours isn’t journalism. For that to resemble journalism you would have to squint so hard your eyes would be shut.
This is a great point and well made.
I would take it a step further and argue that it's not so much a topic as facts. Like objectively measurable things about the real world.
There's always going to be some limit to what we can actually measure and how much time we have to do it, but there's no reason not to try to get close to what we we're capable of doing.
I would argue that there are very few people who are actually authorities on a subject worth uncritically transcribing for 3 hours on a subject. Elon Musk is an easy target, the only thing he's an expert on is being Elon Musk, which isn't a very interesting topic.
What he has to say on any given subject does sometimes matter, because some people believe what he says, so it's useful for me to know some of it, but it's more useful to know what the actual facts are.
I don't want reporters who write an article that says "well I talked to one side and they said it's raining and I talked to the other side and they said it was hailing", I want a reporter who goes out and checks what the weather actually is.
Yes, absolutely. Journalism is fundamentally a fact or truth seeking exercise. I do still think there is room for presenting factually incorrect opinions so they can then be challenged and disproved. So I will meet you in the middle and say that journalism is the factual presentation of a topic. One of those facts could be that an influential person believes or says things that are incorrect.
Wikipedia's definition seems excellent to me:
> Journalism is the production and distribution of reports on the interaction of events, facts, ideas, and people that are the "news of the day" and that informs society to at least some degree of accuracy.
That "some degree" is an important concession. Nobody will be right all the time but the objective of journalism is to discover and present the truth of a topic.
I never said there was "no journalistic value" to anything.
You are touting "call up the authorities" and shitting sitting down and talking face to face with authorities, which reads like a value judgement.
> sitting down and talking face to face with authorities
I think the issue is the number of authorities. One isn’t enough.
Not the authorities. The sources.
Someone "interviewing" a pundit by letting them speak for 3 hours contributes very little to our understanding of reality. We might understand a bit more about the pundit's opinions, which can be entertaining, and could theoretically be valuable, but rarely is.
Someone actually looking for facts about reality would be far more useful and valuable to society. Not that we reward that sort of thing.
Letting someone talk for 3 hours is good information. It contributes a lot. Just because it's not distilled and you're not told what to think about doesn't make it not valuable.
> ...and that's precisely why some on the left won't sit with him. (But not Thompson and Klein, because they actually have something to say.)
Im sorry but what evidence do you have to support such a claim?
I sometimes think back to a passage in "dialectic of enlighenment" where the authors write what amounts to "input without analysis is meaningless, but analysis without new input is madness as the analysis eventually becomes only analysis of other analysis".
I think that generally a true problem nowadays. Popular culture does a lot of "analysis", but not a lot of reality seeking.
>We're often so down on journalism on HN, and I believe a big part of that is we tend to read so much opinion and analysis and so little basic reporting.
The average article posted to HN is actually of far higher quality than the average newspaper article. Sit down and read many of the “big names” cover to cover. You’ll cry. Contrast them with the same newspaper twenty years ago and you’ll lose hope entirely.
I have a hypothesis. In the 2000s it became more common to Google things instead of asking people. For years, this worked out well, but today the quality of Google (and websites!) is terrible. Today we have an entire generation of journalists that know to do their research with the internet, and surprise, when your inputs are garbage, so are the outputs. The inputs are also homogenized content slop, so there aren’t any real different perspectives. Take any topic, say road construction or a controversial bill or new technology, and read articles about it twenty years ago and now. Twenty years ago you might see some really off the wall ideas - but now, all the articles will be the same. Left, right, whatever, nobody really has any new perspectives, they just have their specific bias projected onto the same universal set of 5 thoughts. If you’ve read one, you’ve read them all.
Back to this article, it seems well written and I have no bones to pick - but what the author did (pick up the phone and call people) would have been entirely unremarkable not long ago. The fact that we’re remarking on it now is an indication of how deeply fucked the profession is.
I agree - journalism isn't that hard - Derek Thompson does a good job here. There's lots of good journalism out there.
Still, probably more expensive that having ai write something, and it's not politically on point. Agendas aren't well-served by attempts to describe the truth!
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You can be aligned with a group who benefits from the same position without being associated with that group or lobbying FOR that group i.e. the KKK members probably want cheaper electricity and I want cheaper electricity but that doesn't mean when I lobby for it, I'm lobbying for the KKK.
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Please stop commenting like this here. Rebut the substance of the piece or don't, but whatever weird grievance you have with its author belongs somewhere other than HN.
I'm curious how we can distinguish between someone lobbying hard for the homebuilding industry and someone lobbying hard for people who need homes?
It doesn't have to be a competition. If you're having trouble deciphering which is which, their interests might just be aligned.
On this thread you can tell if somebody is lobbying hard for people who need homes because they bring up realpage or public housing and get BURIED in downvotes: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44750927
The only solution that will make a difference, apparently, is relieving the private sector of onerous regulations which impact their profit margins shrug.
I thought neoliberalism was going out of fashion but apparently not.
And you obviously already got your big expensive house and just want number to go up...
Just flag comments that violate the guidelines, don't retaliate with your own violations.