I was just checking which were the top guesses on polymarket before the announcement and this winner was not even a choice on there. At least we know there's no insider trading at the Nobel foundation.
I was just checking which were the top guesses on polymarket before the announcement and this winner was not even a choice on there. At least we know there's no insider trading at the Nobel foundation.
> In accordance with Nobel's will, the prize is selected by the Norwegian Nobel Committee, a five-member committee appointed by the Parliament of Norway unlike all the other awards chosen by the Swedish Nobel Committee.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Peace_Prize
There's been accusations of leaks in connection to bets with the Nobel Price in Literature.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Prize_in_Literature_cont...
Machado’s odds suddenly surged to almost 80% 12 hours before the announcement
https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1o383a1/oc...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/10/nobel-peace-pr...
Wasn’t that because their CMS had URLs that were easy to guess?
https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1o51k61/upd...
It makes me wonder- how many people are making a living guessing 'secrets' like this on polymarket? Not with bribes and leaks, but just poor infosec. Seems like interesting work, and probably lucrative with the right skillset.
Good point. You could hack someone and just lurk and never do anything directly malicious that would make them notice your presence
There was an interesting interview on the OddLots podcast recently with people who are doing this. They were remarkably sophisticated.
Do you remember the podcast number or title? Curious to hear more about it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFAnQpdgkZE
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/these-are-the-sharps-a...
gambling - this is news?
Perception and financial market movement is interesting to a curious and educated mind.
You know where to head for the cat memes.
The prize in economics is even more different, "in memory of alfred nobel"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Memorial_Prize_in_Econom...
Yes, it doesn’t really have anything to do with the actual Nobels but the name.
I wonder...
If I had inside information, and didn't want to make it obvious, I'd just take the opposite side of any bet for candidates I knew wouldn't win.
Sorry, but your reasoning is incomplete. They could have bet millions on the negative result for each of the candidates that were listed. You aren't forced to bet on a winner, you can instead bet on everybody to lose.
I hope it gets banned by the next administration.
this seems a bit odd to me (change the link to 1 day)
https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-1...
Yulia Navalnaya (widow of Alexei Navalny) had a ton of play, and Navi Pillay didn't even have a market?
edit: and what dang just added about the US - ICC sanctions
Pretty stupid prize to bet on considering the committee keeps even the nominees secret for 50 years.
It would be funny to have such a prize finance itself by doing this. Openly. Game theory working over time on that one.
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Can you explain why this choice is offensive to you?
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"7 October 2025 marked two years since the brutal attack by Palestinian militants that killed 1200 Israelis and foreigners in southern Israel"
Statement by Navi Pillay, 28 October 2025
https://www.un.org/unispal/document/statement-by-navi-pillay...
What was the report about?
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If I'm doing a report on the corruption of the LAPD (as an example), I don't tend to bring up the organised crime in LA, let alone the Mafia in Milan.
A report on abuses committed by the IDF should focus on abuses committed by the IDF. There are many reports on the the war crimes of Hamas, and there are many reports on the war crimes of Russia.
You can't water down the behaviour of the IDF by claiming their actions were somehow justified by the actions of another group. That's how the cycle of aggression perpetuates, and how political agendas overrule human decency. That exact behaviour has some very bad connotations in world history.
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What's the name of the committee? I need to check it myself
It's linked in another comment - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50018795
The report where she acknowledges the massacre on the very first paragraph? OC should have read the damn thing before posting nonsense
Yes, that report. There's no nuance to the OC argument - just denial of facts.
The reactionary propaganda of it being "one sided" or not including "Russia in Ukraine" in a report about genocide in Gaza has been common since the report came out.
Why should a report about crimes committed by the IDF write about crimes committed by Russia or by Hamas? That's the most ridiculous attempt at whataboutism I've seen in a long time.
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Israel isnt an occupied nation
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One wonders how you would have felt about the 1973 prize if you had been alive at the time.