Sorry, but your reasoning is incomplete. They could have bet millions on the negative result for each of the candidates that were listed. You aren't forced to bet on a winner, you can instead bet on everybody to lose.

I hope it gets banned by the next administration.

this seems a bit odd to me (change the link to 1 day)

https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-1...

Yulia Navalnaya (widow of Alexei Navalny) had a ton of play, and Navi Pillay didn't even have a market?

edit: and what dang just added about the US - ICC sanctions

Pretty stupid prize to bet on considering the committee keeps even the nominees secret for 50 years.

It would be funny to have such a prize finance itself by doing this. Openly. Game theory working over time on that one.