Because of the nature of upvoting on social media, we can pretty accurately dial in on what the crowds consensus is.
Your response makes sense when we are pulling random marbles from a bag, like old school forums, but social media abandoned that style of commentary long ago.
I don't think that holds at all.
There are so many variables that go into upvoting and downvoting, and we can't even see the actual scores on HN posts.
The data you refer to isn't available, AFAIK, and even if it were we'd have to account for the hundreds of confounding variables that contribute to post scores being what they are.