> "post-trained to know when it's wrong"
Is it also post-trained to know when it's wrong about when it's wrong?
> "Every response comes with a confidence score between 0 and 1"
How confident is it in its confidence?
Please, I'm sure that what you're doing is very neat and useful, but use other language to describe it. I beg you. You can't know when you're wrong. You can only know when you're unsure or inconsistent. You can be absolutely certain and still wrong and uncertain and still correct.
This is an old problem in philosophy, one that the pre-LLM systems were interested in, which got completely bypassed by the present approach. What is knowledge? It's not a simple question even for humans, we don't have a magic truth detector in the brain.
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/knowledge-analysis/
This is why LLMs are more successful in programming than other disciplines: it's easier to assess correctness of results, through proofs, typechecking, and testing. Similarly for maths and applied maths. Much harder in the humanities.
A few years ago, before RLVR became ubiquitous, people were using generate -> classify loops to get models to improve math reasoning. Turns out classification is sometimes easier to do and more accurate than generating coherent traces. So you'd get a model to "think step by step", then run each step (.split('/n/n')) through a classifier, and tell the model "this step might be wrong, re-check". If you're interested I could probably dig up some papers on this.
Now there might be even better ways of getting feedback, I saw some interesting trials using "J-spaces" (from Anthropic's latest research in this area). Turns out you can kinda see when the model uses deep seeded concepts in early layers, or it's "riffing on an idea" with shallow signals in those same layers. And youc an get some signal out of it, and have it re-do a step.
It's also worth mentioning that LMs are wrong in different ways from humans. It's not impossible that we'll eventually find ways of better understanding this (through mechanistic interpretation or something else) and have easy "classifiers" for "this comes from the training data" vs. "this comes from early context" (i.e. supplied materials from prompts/discovery) vs. "this comes from later tokens, likely the model doom-looped itself".
Interesting question and I don’t share your pessimism. Feels like it’s a matter of some plain old Bayesian stats, almost a homework assignment given all experimental data is available and known.
IMHO this also depends on the type of assertion.. For example, one system defines three broad classes of assertion : pure opinion (I like green); factual references (the current temperature here is 20c) ; and the rest in a catch-all about "reasoned judgements"
Complex assertions and their compounded forms can be filtered by these classes fairly easily. I rarely see this referenced in general comments.
> pure opinion (I like green)
"I like green" is a statement of fact about what you like. "Green is good" would be an opinion. It's funny to me how often people mix the two.
> forms can be filtered by these classes fairly easily
Obviously not so easily. :)
opinion is ephemeral, cannot be independently confirmed or denied; purely single viewer information sounds like not-a-fact to me
Opinion is a ghost in the machine—fleeting, unanchored, and vanishing upon inspection. It leaves no footprint for another mind to verify, no independent trail of evidence to confirm or deny its existence. To rely on such solitary perception is to drift in a void where facts do not exist; it is not merely uncertainty, but an absence of reality itself—a whisper that the universe refuses to echo back. --AI Carl Sagan
It seems to me trivial to verify: just ask.
Exactly. A fact is something that can be objectively confirmed or rejected. Exactly what a specific person likes is a fact, because it can be verified/falsified by simply asking them. An opinion, by contrast is 'Elephants are large.' The reason that's an opinion is because while it seems obviously true, it's subjective. Similarly, grass is purple with pink polka-dots is a fact. It's obviously false, but of course right/wrong has nothing to do with fact/opinion.
Opinions can only be seen as facts when modelled as time series data. Verifying an opinion X at time T does not entail X at time T+1.
"Ephemeral" isn't relevant - a statement of fact can be true at one time and false at another.
Confirmation also is somewhat orthogonal: there can be true facts that we can't confirm.
Conventionally, "I like green" is considered a factual claim about the speaker's preferences. Even if you refuse to acknowledge it as a fact because of the restrictions you've given, that doesn't make it an opinion. It's subjective, but it's not an opinion.
Would you say that if someone is experiencing a headache, and they say "I have a headache", that that's also merely an opinion?