My guess is that Anthropic will either address the government's concern and get the export control removed or implement a citizenship verification (like passport upload or something).
I remember something with either ChatGPT or Claude, way early on, where I had to upload my passport to use some level of it (maybe it was the OpenAI API).
Anyway, there's no way they just shut this completely down, the revenue from mythos is huge. So if they can't get the government to budge they'll find a way to be compliant without completely shutting down.
You may be right, and I actually agree with you: I think that in this case the most likely outcome is that Fable becomes available again at some point, albeit possibly only to a restricted set of users within the US.
But I think my larger points stands: even if we do see Fable access again, this is the beginning of government restriction of LLMs and we are going to see more and more of it. In fact, I would be very surprised if we ever see an open weight model with Mythos capabilities. Chinese labs have been consistently releasing open models 6-12 months behind the frontier. In 6 months we may see them go dark.
Similarly, in the US I think we can expect more and more government restrictions on the strongest LLMs, in ways that may go beyond flimsy checks like uploading a valid US passport. It may not happen this year but I think it will happen eventually.
It still surprises me sometimes that LLMs are just available for _anyone_ to use. Isn't it odd that it turned out this way? When I grew up reading sci-fi I thought AI, if I ever saw it in my lifetime, would be something locked up behind the walls of big corporations and governments. But instead we have all been able to use it for an infinity of banal purposes for $100 a month. This is a strange situation but we have got used to it. But it may not continue that way.
The Chinese labs would only go dark if they believe they’ve surpassed the American labs, otherwise what benefit is there to them to refrain from sharing the models? Better to have all of their allies able to use the same models by making them public
" if I ever saw it in my lifetime, would be something locked up behind the walls of big corporations and governments."
Who knows, maybe the good stuff is locked up. If one of these corporations had something very special they may very well find it more profitable to enjoy the competitive advantage of using it for themselves than marketing it.
> It still surprises me sometimes that LLMs are just available for _anyone_ to use. Isn't it odd that it turned out this way?
I assume it's some of their best training data.
To me, it is obvious that what we are going to have is KYC/AML style compliance from US banking.
We already have the rails for automated customer identification from US banking.
I think there is a larger "AGI" category error with all this too that is akin to the old futurist idea of driving nuclear powered cars in the "future". The Ford Nucleon.
Nuclear power comes to us in a mix of electricity from the utility company but is far too dangerous for an individual to posses nuclear material for personal nuclear reactors.
An electric car does run on nuclear energy in some sense but not the way the Ford Nucleon was envisioned.
The error of the AI bubble is that we are pricing these companies with SaaS multiples when they are eventually going to be public utilities. There is really no other way to handle the dual use nature of anything close to "AGI".
I think some of the commenters are naive to think government intervention is silly and TACO.
No, Dario said himself AI is national state weapon, then the government will not cease control.
What would happen is that we will have a more lobotomized and even more neurotic safeguards put in place in order to comply, and your data will be boardly sharing with the government.
Moving forward, above certain parameter size of model, it will require your self-identification in order to be used.
Perhaps a little tinfoil hat, but I don't think there's a legitimate concern here to address. An empowered populace is antithetical to the current political paradigm, which is what I suspect the actual grievance to be.
And before either 'aisle' piles on - I'm pretty sure the concern is bipartisan.
Anthropics latest amendment to their privacy policy stated that there are very likely to be asking for ID verification in the near future.
>> As part of our measures to keep our services safe and secure we may ask you to verify your age or identity, and we've described what we collect and how
This. This I believe is what it's all about. US government is going to create identity verification through the backdoor using AI as the reason (at least its not 'think of the children' again)
I feel like a very minor tweak to comply specifically with whatever the issue the directive stated and release it under a new name (since the directive specifically names Fable and Mythos, not Opus or Sonnet) while the courts sort it out is reasonable.