The market cap of the S&P 500 according to Google is ~$65T. Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX could well amount to $4T+ in market cap. That's ~6% of the entire index. It's like adding another NVidia. That's a big deal.
The rules around index inclusion exist for a reason. Too much control in one person's hands (which SpaceX has), too small a float (so you don't get price discovery), lack of a history of financial performance and minimal trading days just don't give investors confidence and, like it or not, investment decisions are made based on the index. If you want to argue against passive investment, well, good luck with that.
I think a lot of people have this weird idea that what we need is some theoretically unfettered market for "true" price discovery when it's actually regulations like this that create markets. It's like a libertarian brain worm.
I don't think anybody wants these mega-companies out of the index, specifically. They just don't see why rules that exist for a reason should be suspended when the net effect of that is that investors have less information and there is a lot of forced purchasing. If you have confidence in your IPO, let the market decide what it's worth without trying to fix the price because what they seem to want is for insider lock-ups to end about the time we'd otherwise be getting normal price discovery. Kinda weird.
Investor confidence needfs to be managed by creating a stable, regulated market.
> Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX could well amount to $4T+ in market cap. That's ~6% of the entire index. It's like adding another NVidia.
This is a common misconception. The S&P 500 weights allocation by float-adjusted market cap, not by total market cap. In the case of SpaceX, they are planning to float ~4% of shares at IPO. Even if SpaceX was added to the index, its index weight would be based on that tiny float, and at a $1.75T valuation it would be treated as roughly a $70 billion company.
SpaceX weight would be ~0.125% of the index, not ~2.5% as you imply.
Nasdaq "solved" that problem by including a 5x float multiplier for stocks with less than 20% of shares available to the public...
That's misleading.
Before the changes, the Nasdaq-100 index was total market cap-weighted not float-weighted. Once a company crossed 10% floated shares, the company was added to the index at full weight.
Nasdaq's new system is a hybrid of float-weighted and cap-weighted. If a company has below 33.3% float, its weighting is 3x float. Above that, it's cap weighted. This allows a gradual fade-in of the company into the index.
It's a better system than the previous one, and in Nasdaq's own words, more conservative.
For the Nasdaq-100, SpaceX at 4% float gets 3 x 4% = 12% of its market cap counted, which is $210B not $1.75T. Still <1% of the index.
Also, the multiplier is 3x, not 5x. Nasdaq proposed 5x, but after feedback, this was reduced to 3x. The new thresholds are 3x and 33%, not 5x and 20%.
https://www.nasdaq.com/newsroom/nasdaq100-index-methodology-...
I stand corrected, I was not aware of the full mechanism, and I was still stuck at the proposed multiplier and not the actual one.
SoaceX plans to continually unlock float for the first six months of being listed. So the percentage of the index would continue to rise.
except $4T is a made up number, a complete fantasy not rooted in any reality. it us more like $750bn (this is also made up number) :)
All valuations are “made up” numbers.
Some are more made up than others though!
Price discovery isn’t “making up” a number it’s discovering a number that meets a specific criteria.
Critically it’s not simply averaging a bunch of made up numbers. I may think gold is worth 1,000$/kg but if nobody is willing to sell me gold at that price then my “made up” number has zero effect on the market price.
The 409a has a lot of words and numbers to justify a particular valuation. It's not made up from the ether based on nothing. You can disagree with their reasoning and come to a different number, but you need to show your work if you want anyone to give a shit about your made up number. How many satellites have you launched this year? What's the going rate for a kilogram to LEO? Who are the competitors and what do they charge? Things like that which aren't magic made up numbers.
The valuation is actually mostly about AI. Satellites, like electric cars, don’t have quite the growth story (and I do mean “story”).
https://bsky.app/profile/patigallardo.bsky.social/post/3mnhc...
That’s total addressable market. It’s claiming that AI products they could build could be that amount. It assumes they gain 100% of the market which techbros are basically claiming is most current human effort. It’s stupid, but not what’s actually driving the price.
They are making more revenue off satellites than nearly every current AI subscription today put together. The launch capacity and growth in space based applications are the real company, everything else is to line Musks pockets and have markets subsidize his dumber projects.
It’s a shell game. I believe in their Space based products, but I’m not touching those investments until the market levels out.
> The 409a has a lot of words and numbers to justify a particular valuation
That's tangential. The valuation is based on supply and demand, nothing else.
Amongst other things the supply part of the equation will be low because all these companies are only to make a very small proportion of their shares available on the public markets.
409As are absolutely made-up numbers. Management writes a number on a sheet and a 409A consultant signs it.
You do realize SpaceX valuation is completely detached from the space business at this point?
Their S1 cites (by memory) a 370B addressable market for space stuff and a 27 trillion for AI.
And for AI they counted all Twitter accounts as grok users.
The Spaces eXploration company was a cool company, but it's not what's being sold to the market now.
Closer to 1.7 trillion for space. You’re quoting launch but discounting satellites and broadband.
The AI stuff is dumb and just subsidize Elons prior dumber investments.
Oh come on. They absolutely have to target a valuation that's profitable for previous rounds, any reasoning is subservient to that imperative.
> The 409a has a lot of words and numbers to justify a particular valuation.
Wow, you should educate yourself on what 409A is and how it gets created before writing something like that, you'd find it in the dictionary under the definition for what my original comment was :)