Just to put this in context. If every company did this, all over the world, with that same limit, we are talking about something around $45B monthly in revenue for all AI companies to share.
Just to put this in context. If every company did this, all over the world, with that same limit, we are talking about something around $45B monthly in revenue for all AI companies to share.
There are a lot of places in Europe where 1.5k$ is more than 50% of the total cost of an employee.
And the obvious question: what it's the cost of that revenue? Because it looks huge but ...
Don't you forget about India and Latinamerica... No way I see companies paying that much for outsourced employees
One could hire a competent developer here in Brazil for that amount. I know because my workplace has hired competent developers for that amount. You can even call them senior developers, but you can't get "non-startup seniors" with actual experience, those expect a bit more.
I just wanted to take their number at face value. It's not like it needs more real information to make AI a bubble.
Are you saying there are only 30 million people employed in white collar jobs in the world?
About 30 million software developers. At least that's what a quick web search says.
It is not only for devs
https://openai.com/index/codex-for-every-role-tool-workflow/
So, are companies paying that amount for people at other roles to use it?
Obviously not
45 billion / 1500 $ is 30 million workers. How did we arrive at 30 million?
I think maybe he meant specifically for software engineers?
That's a bold assumption. Increasing costs by roughly $18 000 per employee worldwide is highly unlikely. For reference even at FAANG in Europe, that would be a 7-15% cost increase for a senior developer. More like 15-30% for non FAANG and even more for non-European markets.
I don't think it's a bold assumption, but I also don't think the assumption would lead to the conclusion.
1. Why it's not a bold assumption: it's a bit shocking now. But in two years or so, many/most companies will realize this is the cost of doing business. Just like people are ok with using Outlook, or Office 365, or (in the case of Wall Street) Bloomberg terminals, people will realize that developers will need AI coding assistants.
2. Why the conclusion does not follow from the assumption: if the limit is set at $1500/developer/month, it does not mean all developers will use it. Companies will set incentives for people to not be very wasteful. It is more likely that on average developers will consume $100-200 worth of tokens per month, and there will be some outliers who will consume 10, 100, or 1000 times as much, but they'll be few.
> Office 365
An entreprise license for 0365 is something like $75 per person per month. Totally different order of magnitude.
And regarding Bloomberg terminals, Bloomberg only has 1 million users (semi random guess).
The reality will be that some places just won't pay for any licenses or will try to set up their own, local LLMs.
World bank says there are 3.7B employed humans. Putting the total addressable market at around 67T if all of us spend USD 1.5k on tokens every month. This lines up well with current forecasts from the major AI labs
> Putting the total addressable market at around 67T if all of us spend USD 1.5k on tokens every month
However, that's an absurd scenario.
Congrats, you're hired at Anthropic.
well, you couldn't justify the cost if you still employed all 3.7B