Isn’t this the motivation behind polymarket? To incentivize those that have information to bet as a signal of “truth”. What I don’t get is why would anyone bet on this stuff that don’t have insider information besides those with gambling addiction.
Isn’t this the motivation behind polymarket? To incentivize those that have information to bet as a signal of “truth”. What I don’t get is why would anyone bet on this stuff that don’t have insider information besides those with gambling addiction.
It's not just a gambling addiction, but many people consider themselves smarter than the average person, and nature's way of punishing these people is creating things like stock markets and polymarkets.
It’s a gambling site. The motivation behind it is to make money through transaction fees. You can bet on sports games too.
Some people have better data, like insiders.
Some have better models that predict with higher accuracy, given the same data.
There’s also a vague argument around hedging some actual risks that some market participants genuinely want to hedge… which depends a lot on the specific bet. Eg hedging exposure to specific political events, wars or even company announcements can be relevant and worth a premium for non-insiders. Where there’s a premium to be collected there are speculators to do so.
Because taking high variance slightly negative EV shots is not a terrible strategy when you have a long time horizon.
this is the "lose money on every sale but make it up on scale" version for gamblers and I love that for you.
By “not terrible” you mean “bad but not very bad” and not “good” right?
"High variance, slightly-negative EV shots on a long time horizon" is a gambling addict's way of justifying the old adage, "sure, we're losing money on each sale, but we'll make up for it in volume!"