I presume if you invest in Google you are indirectly (but significantly) invested in Waymo, like it is with Anthropic?
Waymo is the best service I've used in many, many years. The jump from Uber->Waymo is similar to the quality jump from Taxi->Uber 12 years ago, but I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get enshittified.
Google's marketcap moves by Waymo's entire marketcap in a single day.
Google has a $4.1T market cap.
So a $110B valuation is not currently that significant in terms of exposure. It's only 2.7% of it overall.
Fair, though my guess is that the growth rate of Waymo's market cap will far exceed Google's as Waymo scales. I wish I could invest in Waymo, so I'll take that 2.7% exposure.
> I presume if you invest in Google you are indirectly (but significantly) invested in Waymo, like it is with Anthropic?
You also get some Starlink.
> I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get enshittified.
Oh ye of little faith! Here are some ideas off the top of my head, I am sure the suits at Google already have a bigger list.
The ads will be awful, because you’re effectively captive. You only control the volume and screen if they let you.
Finally, a justification for owning an Apple Vision Pro.
Ads in vehicles are a sure thing. Also a sure thing you'll be able to pay a little extra to turn them off, which is basically just the full price of the trip unsubsidized by ads.
It'll be up to you, just like whether you want your Netflix cheaper with ads, or more expensive but without.
I see that choice as a good thing.
The rest of your suggestions are incredibly unlikely. Google doesn't even scan your Gmail anymore, you think they're going to create a privacy scandal by listening to your conversations? And they certainly don't sell your Maps timeline which is far more valuable than just a few car trips, so why on earth would they do that with Waymo? Nor does Google Maps offer to send you to Burger King when you hit directions for McDonald's. And taking a longer route that wastes time, battery and money, on the chance you'll be looking out the window to see a billboard rather than looking at your phone, doesn't make sense at all.
There's all that, but you can just look at Uber for the classic model of how a company like this enshittifies, which is:
- offer a service well below market rate, gain dependent customers
- crank up the price
No need to do much of the other stuff
Don't forget:
* Stop doing any meaningful in-person inspection of the vehicle to ensure that it is in good condition before joining the network
* Stop requiring cars to be <= 4 years old
* (Seemingly) stop requiring drivers to maintain trunk space free for passengers' luggage
[dead]
They already will be selling your ride data and there is no way they could monitor conversations in the car for commercial purposes (at least in Western countries).
Ads in cars, partnerships with alternative destinations, etc. definitely would feel like enshitification for a demographic comparable to the hacker news one here. But these are all per session/user settings just like most of us have a paid Spotify account and never see advertising and those who don't get a very different monetized experience.
What is exciting about monetization like this is the possibility for rides to become very cheap or even free. If my dentist offers free rides to the office in return for my loyalty, I'm quite happy to take that.
> If my dentist offers free rides to the office in return for my loyalty, I'm quite happy to take that.
That's actually a really interesting angle. The same way businesses often provide free parking now... what if they start providing free self-driving round trips?
E.g. spend $75 or more at Whole Foods, and get free round-trip up to 20 miles or something. Especially for bulky items like groceries where a car makes a big difference, I can totally see that becoming standard. Home Depot too. Plus entertainment like amusement parks, movie theaters, spas...
It makes particular sense for vertically integrated conglomerates like Amazon-Whole Foods which owns Zoox.
I buy Whole Foods French fries shipped to the store via Amazon logistics and purchase those at Amazon owned Whole Foods, at a discount via my Prime membership on my Amazon credit card which is processed on AWS infrastructure and I ride home on an Amazon owned Zoox that also runs on AWS infrastructure.
Amazon owns so much of the profit margin across that stack that they can afford to give rides away for example.
> there is no way they could monitor conversations in the car for commercial purposes (at least in Western countries)
people used to feel that way about search queries, email (gmail) and IP laws (LLM training).
> What is exciting about monetization like this is the possibility for rides to become very cheap or even free. If my dentist offers free rides to the office in return for my loyalty, I'm quite happy to take that.
this won't happen. alphabet will collect on both ends.
> and there is no way they could monitor conversations in the car for commercial purposes (at least in Western countries).
Why not? You can consent to having your audio recorded. They can even offer a higher “private” price and a lower “ad supported” price. I write “private” because I assume the microphones will always be listening no matter which price you pay.
I guess that's semantics. If you opt in then yes I guess they could do anything. I think the point was that enshitification would occur if they forced you to do that.
You could opt in to have blood or plasma taken on every ride if you so wanted I guess.
Rough figures:
As a plasma donor you can earn $30-$70 per session for 800 ml. Let's call it $50. A session takes about 90 minutes, or 533 ml/hour, and you make $33/hour
Waymo charges $0.50 - $1.00 per mile. Let's use the high end.
To break even, your Waymo will need to consume < $33/hour, or < 33 mph. That's not bad!
If you go any faster, you won't be able to extract enough plasma in the same amount of time.
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/google-voice-assistant-laws...
> there is no way they could monitor conversations in the car for commercial purposes (at least in Western countries)
Oh, you'll agree to that when you accept the terms of service.
Can't wait for the "This ride with ads: $17. Ad free: $26" choice.
Couldn't Uber do that today?
/cries into my Uber shares and the deletion of the Uber ATG repos when the parts were sold to Aurora.
You really think ads in vehicle are not coming? You’re being naive if you think that.
Also, cheap rides cut into stocks margins. That won’t fly by investors either. These companies are not charities. They are in the business of maximizing profits. We lost “don’t be evil” over a decade ago.
We already have ads in vehicles.
If you fly United, the in-flight entertainment has pre-roll ads.
I can't say how well that model translates to car rides.
I see you haven’t seen or heard of cabs’ in-car ad screens we’ve had for close to two decades, if you have to point to airplanes as an example.
I haven't been in a cab in 2 decades, so that tracks.
> I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get enshittified.
Raise the price?
Enshittification is a technique to make more money _without_ raising the price by simply making the product worse.
Self-driving taxis have a high floor for 'making the product worse' because the car fundamentally has to drive itself.
It appears that enshittification has joined exponential and literally as words that used to mean specific things but are now just generic intensifiers.
The obvious way such services enshittify is to become a monopoly by pushing everyone else out, then cranking up the prices (and lowering quality, e.g. by not cleaning the vehicles, longer wait times for better utilization, etc.)
This is Google you're talking about. They're an ads+AI company. They'll figure out a way to enshittify, even if it's not obvious.
"Please watch these ads before we start the ride. Any attempt to not look at the ads by looking away from the screen or closing your eyes will automatically cancel the ride."
https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Ft...
> but I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get enshittified
My guess is that once Waymo starts to extremely take off, law makers in various cities will start to pass laws to ban them or the number of regulations will make it impossible to run at a profit. This will almost certainly happen. It will disproportionately impact an entire segment of the population and will put them out of work.
No they won't. The product is so outrageously superior on every dimension to the status quo that municipalities will figure out whatever they need to in order to accommodate them.
You think the folks on City Council enjoy chauffeuring their own children around and will block a solution to it?
Yes. It's already happening
https://www.reddit.com/r/Minneapolis/comments/1pdzd2f/some_m...
In Virginia too, proposed in HB1124:
> The bill prohibits the use of autonomous vehicles as motor carriers of passengers or property without a human operator who (i) meets any state and federal qualifications for the operation of an autonomous vehicle; (ii) is physically present in such autonomous vehicle; and (iii) has the ability to monitor the performance of such vehicle and intervene in the operation of such vehicle, including operating such vehicle without the use of the automated driving system and stopping and turning off such vehicle if necessary.
https://lis.virginia.gov/bill-details/20261/HB1124
If they prohibit autonomous vehicles, eventually their constituencies will be screaming for it.
It seems that many people, after trying out the service for themselves first hand, in a locale that has it available today, are very eager to have the service available to them in their home locale.
Maybe, although stupid laws can become heavily entrenched and surprisingly hard to change. Like in New Jersey I think you still can't pump your own gas, and some idiots actually defend that crazy policy for the sake of saving jobs.
But this is a great example: the reality is that pumping your own gas is simply not even a 10x better product than having it pumped for you.
If NJ consumers (and politicians) had a 10x better product dangled in front of them every day, then the regulation side would solve itself.
Waymo is truly just such a vastly superior product that consumers will get exposed enough to it to care, and when they care, they will solve the regulation side.
I didn't say people won't try. Obviously there will be resistance. I am saying that the resistance will not be successful for any significant amount of time for any significant jurisdiction.
Uber and Lyft operated partially or outright illegally in many places while negotiating with governments. They also had a far superior product. Just like they fought the existing taxi companies, Waymo will have to fight against Uber and Lyft's lawyers, who are probably better funded and have learned to become better entrenched in governments.
Uber and Lyft are goners, their customers don't care about them and will take Waymos the second they're available.
Uber and Lyft will survive exactly to the extent they successfully adopt self-driving.
> Uber and Lyft will survive exactly to the extent they successfully adopt self-driving.
I think this is correct and I want to point out something that I have not seen mentioned elsewhere in the thread.
If and when Uber/Lyft move heavily in this direction, the cost/operational benefits of having their "fleet" of vehicles be privately owned-vehicles will almost certainly disappear.
What's everyone's hate with uber and lyft rides? Over the past 10 years, I've had maybe one ride that was a 1/5. Most drivers either don't talk or are actually very pleasant conversations
I will take whichever one is cheaper. Just like now I open up both uber and lyft to see which costs less, I'll open up waymo as well
I travel a fair amount, and Uber and Lyft service quality has become noticeably worse in the last few years. The apps lie to you about pickup times. Drivers will accept a ride but then never actually head towards your location. A significant fraction of the vehicles are showing some sort of warning light on the dashboard: check engine, overdue maintenance, low tire pressure, etc.
Have you taken a Waymo?
I don't hate Uber/Lyft (though many in NYC are legitimately horrible, just like taxis)
Waymo is simply an order of magnitude better than the best Uber ride I've ever had
I've had some great conversations with uber drivers. Most don't talk, but I've had some memorable ones for sure.
Sure, yeah, same here. Waymo is still an order of magnitude better.
Lyft + Uber market cap is under 200B Alphabet 4T+ I think they will manage
Wait till you see the showdown that's building up in NYC.
Mamdani, the new nyc mayor, has been a long time friend and advocate for NYC taxi workers alliance. He even participated in a hunger strike with them in 2021.
Waymo is right now starting the wheels turning on getting NYC permits, but taxi workers have already made their (obvious) stance clear: No Waymos.
Yeah, but they will lose. Certainly in the long run (10 year horizon, almost certainly in the medium term (5 year horizon), and very likely even in the short term under the auspices of "limited experiments" while constituents and stakeholders get hooked.
The NY Governor's office has always been pro-SDC's, the Mayor's office has always been against them.
This video is very apt: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_tjZchYXMmA Australian Taxpayers' Alliance - "ALL Obsolete Industries Deserve The Taxi Bailout!" (1m38s) [2015-12-13]
> law makers in various cities will start to pass laws to ban them or the number of regulations will make it impossible to run at a profit. This will almost certainly happen
No they won’t. And Waymo’s playbook would be Uber’s if they did: preëmpt at the state and federal levels.