> but I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get enshittified
My guess is that once Waymo starts to extremely take off, law makers in various cities will start to pass laws to ban them or the number of regulations will make it impossible to run at a profit. This will almost certainly happen. It will disproportionately impact an entire segment of the population and will put them out of work.
No they won't. The product is so outrageously superior on every dimension to the status quo that municipalities will figure out whatever they need to in order to accommodate them.
You think the folks on City Council enjoy chauffeuring their own children around and will block a solution to it?
Yes. It's already happening
https://www.reddit.com/r/Minneapolis/comments/1pdzd2f/some_m...
In Virginia too, proposed in HB1124:
> The bill prohibits the use of autonomous vehicles as motor carriers of passengers or property without a human operator who (i) meets any state and federal qualifications for the operation of an autonomous vehicle; (ii) is physically present in such autonomous vehicle; and (iii) has the ability to monitor the performance of such vehicle and intervene in the operation of such vehicle, including operating such vehicle without the use of the automated driving system and stopping and turning off such vehicle if necessary.
https://lis.virginia.gov/bill-details/20261/HB1124
If they prohibit autonomous vehicles, eventually their constituencies will be screaming for it.
It seems that many people, after trying out the service for themselves first hand, in a locale that has it available today, are very eager to have the service available to them in their home locale.
Maybe, although stupid laws can become heavily entrenched and surprisingly hard to change. Like in New Jersey I think you still can't pump your own gas, and some idiots actually defend that crazy policy for the sake of saving jobs.
But this is a great example: the reality is that pumping your own gas is simply not even a 10x better product than having it pumped for you.
If NJ consumers (and politicians) had a 10x better product dangled in front of them every day, then the regulation side would solve itself.
Waymo is truly just such a vastly superior product that consumers will get exposed enough to it to care, and when they care, they will solve the regulation side.
I didn't say people won't try. Obviously there will be resistance. I am saying that the resistance will not be successful for any significant amount of time for any significant jurisdiction.
Uber and Lyft operated partially or outright illegally in many places while negotiating with governments. They also had a far superior product. Just like they fought the existing taxi companies, Waymo will have to fight against Uber and Lyft's lawyers, who are probably better funded and have learned to become better entrenched in governments.
Uber and Lyft are goners, their customers don't care about them and will take Waymos the second they're available.
Uber and Lyft will survive exactly to the extent they successfully adopt self-driving.
> Uber and Lyft will survive exactly to the extent they successfully adopt self-driving.
I think this is correct and I want to point out something that I have not seen mentioned elsewhere in the thread.
If and when Uber/Lyft move heavily in this direction, the cost/operational benefits of having their "fleet" of vehicles be privately owned-vehicles will almost certainly disappear.
What's everyone's hate with uber and lyft rides? Over the past 10 years, I've had maybe one ride that was a 1/5. Most drivers either don't talk or are actually very pleasant conversations
I will take whichever one is cheaper. Just like now I open up both uber and lyft to see which costs less, I'll open up waymo as well
I travel a fair amount, and Uber and Lyft service quality has become noticeably worse in the last few years. The apps lie to you about pickup times. Drivers will accept a ride but then never actually head towards your location. A significant fraction of the vehicles are showing some sort of warning light on the dashboard: check engine, overdue maintenance, low tire pressure, etc.
Have you taken a Waymo?
I don't hate Uber/Lyft (though many in NYC are legitimately horrible, just like taxis)
Waymo is simply an order of magnitude better than the best Uber ride I've ever had
I've had some great conversations with uber drivers. Most don't talk, but I've had some memorable ones for sure.
Sure, yeah, same here. Waymo is still an order of magnitude better.
Lyft + Uber market cap is under 200B Alphabet 4T+ I think they will manage
Wait till you see the showdown that's building up in NYC.
Mamdani, the new nyc mayor, has been a long time friend and advocate for NYC taxi workers alliance. He even participated in a hunger strike with them in 2021.
Waymo is right now starting the wheels turning on getting NYC permits, but taxi workers have already made their (obvious) stance clear: No Waymos.
Yeah, but they will lose. Certainly in the long run (10 year horizon, almost certainly in the medium term (5 year horizon), and very likely even in the short term under the auspices of "limited experiments" while constituents and stakeholders get hooked.
The NY Governor's office has always been pro-SDC's, the Mayor's office has always been against them.
This video is very apt: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_tjZchYXMmA Australian Taxpayers' Alliance - "ALL Obsolete Industries Deserve The Taxi Bailout!" (1m38s) [2015-12-13]
> law makers in various cities will start to pass laws to ban them or the number of regulations will make it impossible to run at a profit. This will almost certainly happen
No they won’t. And Waymo’s playbook would be Uber’s if they did: preëmpt at the state and federal levels.