I've practiced a healthy skepticism of the recent boom but I can't reason why the long horizon time wouldn't stretch to 8 hours or a week worth's of effort from next year. After Opus-4.5, governments and organizations should really figure out a path out of this storm because we're in it now.
Doubling time has been 7 months for a while, so you should expect 8h not 1 week next year.
Predictions over historical data in a landscape with fragile priors doesn't seem like a strong metric to me (it's a useful approximation at best)
It's significantly accelerated to 4 months since the beginning of 2025, which puts 1 week within reach if things stay on trend. But yes 7 months is the more reliable long-term trend.
Can we attribute the acceleration to something specific, that might not actually continue growth? For example, agentic coding and reasoning models seem to have made a huge leap in abilities, but wouldn't translate to an ongoing exponential growth.