It's significantly accelerated to 4 months since the beginning of 2025, which puts 1 week within reach if things stay on trend. But yes 7 months is the more reliable long-term trend.
Can we attribute the acceleration to something specific, that might not actually continue growth? For example, agentic coding and reasoning models seem to have made a huge leap in abilities, but wouldn't translate to an ongoing exponential growth.
Predictions over historical data in a landscape with fragile priors doesn't seem like a strong metric to me (it's a useful approximation at best)
It's significantly accelerated to 4 months since the beginning of 2025, which puts 1 week within reach if things stay on trend. But yes 7 months is the more reliable long-term trend.
Can we attribute the acceleration to something specific, that might not actually continue growth? For example, agentic coding and reasoning models seem to have made a huge leap in abilities, but wouldn't translate to an ongoing exponential growth.