Here are the current favorites accross the betting sites, I mean Trump has a decent chance
https://files.catbox.moe/xc1ik1.png
(NATO is a funny one too lol)
Here are the current favorites accross the betting sites, I mean Trump has a decent chance
https://files.catbox.moe/xc1ik1.png
(NATO is a funny one too lol)
Betting sites set their odds to maximise their revenue, not reality ;)
Polymarkets currently has him at 3%
https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025?t...
On the one hand, betting markets are fantastic predictors. I do really admire the "skin in the game" aspect tracking future outcomes better than polling or "expert" opinion.
But that comes at a steep cost. It's a huge negative externality. Placing bets on future outcomes like this isn't the same as placing bets on future outcomes by starting companies, investing in companies, doing fundamental research, or even putting your money in the public markets.
It's like sports betting. We're making the marketplace rich and separating gambling addicts from their livelihoods. Without enriching society.
We should tax this to pay for education or have some kind of societal upside. It's all bad, otherwise.
We may get some surprises but I don't think so:
- Trump doesn't project a peaceful image, that's not his style, unlike Obama. No matter the result of his actions, he is at a disadvantage.
- The September peace proposal for the Gaza war that could make a good argument is likely to be too recent to influence the decision.
- Trump wants to annex Greenland, I don't think the Norwegian Nobel Committee appreciates.
files.catbox.moe has a security policy called HTTP Strict Transport Security (HSTS), which means that Firefox can only connect to it securely. You can’t add an exception to visit this site.
Why is Firefix blocking it? Is HSTS somehow bad?
Oh there's something with their certificate
holy fuck people will bet on pretty much anything I guess huh?
I bet you they won't.
I will take that bet. It's very easy for me to win.