On the one hand, betting markets are fantastic predictors. I do really admire the "skin in the game" aspect tracking future outcomes better than polling or "expert" opinion.

But that comes at a steep cost. It's a huge negative externality. Placing bets on future outcomes like this isn't the same as placing bets on future outcomes by starting companies, investing in companies, doing fundamental research, or even putting your money in the public markets.

It's like sports betting. We're making the marketplace rich and separating gambling addicts from their livelihoods. Without enriching society.

We should tax this to pay for education or have some kind of societal upside. It's all bad, otherwise.