People are confused about what these published agreements (like with the EU as well) are. They're not legal agreements, treaties, or even executive orders, although the corresponding orders to reduce the tariffs are of course executive orders.
But the agreements themselves are completely informal and an overview of what the US expects to see happen in order to maintain the tariff reductions. The interpretation of whether the other country or group of countries is abiding the agreement is entirely at the discretion of Trump.
So there's no such thing as a loop hole. If Trump isn't satisfied with e.g. the EU's progress towards implementing said agreement, he can increase tariffs back to where they were at his discretion, with or without reason given. So there's no such thing as a loop hole in this sort of agreement.
The loop hole is every nation just agrees to stop dealing with the US and isolate them. Sure, we’d all suffer horribly but at least the west would have a future, vs we all suffer horribly anyways and fall along with the US.
I don't think agreement is necessary. I think each will, in turn, come to their own conclusions.
In boardrooms around the world there is of course concern to protecting the existing US market. And in the short term there are lots of noises to placate the US.
At the same time there's a recognition that the US is not a stable long-term partner. The bigger conversation is around new markets, building diversity of markets, diversity of investment and so on.
"Global Trade" is mostly not an organised thing. It's a zillion small transactions between individuals, small companies and so on. Ultimately my (US) customers will pay the tarifs to their govt, or not (shrug). In the meantime I'm looking for non-US customers for my business growth. I'm investing anywhere except the US, because the current uncertainty is bad for making investment decisions.
Ultimately this process is a wake up call to suppliers who have focused on the US market. And to those future businesses to come. Diversify markets, because then you aren't beholden to them.
In 10 years time, regardless of who is in power, or the conditions then, the lesson will remain.
I think your take is correct. Governments around the world are going to say whatever they need to to get the lowest tariffs possible but trade will slowly reorient itself. I said before the election, if Trump works with Western allies then he'd probably get consensus to take on China with combined tariffs. We know what happened instead.
This is the ideal outcome. Just produce the trade blockade that the US is trying to achieve through policy.
And like other blockaded nations, North Korea and Palestine, the US will reach its intended levels of greatness within minutes.
It doesn’t need to be dramatic or announced or even a major policy. Every country is finding out that dealing with Trump’s US is an expensive pain in the ass of unknowns, constant flux and mafia-like pay to play bribes.
Many countries will just deal with other countries because it’s cheaper, easier and less of a headache.
Tourism from foreigners in the US has taken a severe and extremely expensive nose dive. Everything else will too.
That's unlikely. Sovereign nations generally act in their own best interest. For a quite visual example, for most of the Ukrainian war, Ukraine worked as a key transit hub for a huge chunk of all Russian gas heading to the EU. Why? Because they assessed the billions of dollars they gained in transit fees as being more beneficial to themselves, and their war effort, than interrupting the flow would be.
Doing something self destructive to spite another country is often a sign of either incompetent leadership or of a country that's not truly sovereign - countries that end up with some major dependency (economic, military, or political) on another country can be compelled to act against their rational self interest.
So back to here, the effect of what Trump's doing is not particularly unique. The US has few, if any, allies and lots of countries that are simply nominally independent vassals. We say jump, and they only ask how high. But what he is doing that's particularly unique is making this entire charade 100% transparent and giving them absolutely 0 chance at saving face. I think he simply enjoys humiliating them, very possibly as a result of things that happened during the previous administration.
It will probably accelerate the shift to a multipolar world. I'm very much not a believer in the 5d chess stuff, but I would at least tease the possibility that this outcome might have been considered and not be seen as undesirable. If one considers the goal of solely advancing American interests, it's not clear that hegemony is beneficial. Hegemony entails endless wars and endless interventions around the world funded by endless debt. And as allies and enemies alike reach technological parity, it's becoming ever more dangerous.
And for what? How does this all positively affect the average American? In a purely transactional world, it's hard to see how America, in terms of the affects on Americans, would be worse off than in the current one where we expend just unimaginably massive amounts of resources trying to maintain hegemony.
Countries are already doing what is in their best interest, which is why all these "agreements" are essentially fake. Countries are simply saying nice things hoping to get keep tariffs low for as long as possible. But the actual plan, not even hidden, leaders from wester nations all over are saying it out loud, is to diversify trade.
Once trade is diversified, the US will be isolated naturally as it represents the least beneficial trade arrangement. Now, if MAGA is dethrowned somehow, sure, trade with the US will increase again, but the diversification you see happing now will be permanent. Things aren't going to go back to the way they were, the US has already given up it's spot as the economic leader of the west, and it's given up all its foreign soft-power, it's just a slow process to see it all play out.
I agree the trade diversification would obviously be the perfectly logical and smart play. The EU seems to be doing the opposite. The EU has become critically dependent upon US natural gas, imported at a sharp premium, while constantly speaking of efforts to "de-risk" explicitly with regards to China, and implicitly with regards to Russia. On top of this both imports and exports with the US have skyrocketed since 2022.
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2021: Imports = €232 billion, Exports = €399 billion
2022: €359, €508
2024: €335, €532
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And 2021 is not some cherry picked COVID related oddity or something. It was a record high for exports and just under a record high (€235b in 2019) for imports. [1] So we're seeing an EU more dependent than ever upon the US while aiming to "de-risk" from the US' geopolitical adversaries. Annual results for 2025 are obviously not available yet, but so far this trend has not meaningfully changed. The EU continue to act like vassals.
I also am starting to doubt that these tariffs will be lifted, even if the DNC somehow wins 2028. They've been hesitant to make that a part of their platform, and the tariffs effectively amount to a very large tax revenue increase levied primarily at the largest corporations, which can be arbitrarily tweaked by the President - enabling him to, in effect, unilaterally raise or lower taxes by Executive Order. Government 'temporary emergency measures' are rarely temporary. That's where federal income taxes come from, and even the requirement of passports. We'll see, but I think we're looking at the new normal.
[1] - https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/isdb_results/factsheets/country...
People keep describing Trump as transactional. He doesn't appear to be anything of the sort. He's vain, impulsive, inconsistent, impetuous, mean, and never holds up his end of a bargain. Definitely not transactional.
> People keep describing Trump as transactional. He doesn't appear to be anything of the sort.
I think they are using the word transactional as a euphemism for something else.
I think it is fair to characterize him as transactional. And also as stupid and narcissistic.
It is the combination that makes the orange.
The loophole is real estate for Trump Towers or shinny golden trinkets or billion investment contracts for family. Not into old fashioned bribery? We‘ll the is a narrowly traded crypto coin to help you out.