Countries are already doing what is in their best interest, which is why all these "agreements" are essentially fake. Countries are simply saying nice things hoping to get keep tariffs low for as long as possible. But the actual plan, not even hidden, leaders from wester nations all over are saying it out loud, is to diversify trade.

Once trade is diversified, the US will be isolated naturally as it represents the least beneficial trade arrangement. Now, if MAGA is dethrowned somehow, sure, trade with the US will increase again, but the diversification you see happing now will be permanent. Things aren't going to go back to the way they were, the US has already given up it's spot as the economic leader of the west, and it's given up all its foreign soft-power, it's just a slow process to see it all play out.

I agree the trade diversification would obviously be the perfectly logical and smart play. The EU seems to be doing the opposite. The EU has become critically dependent upon US natural gas, imported at a sharp premium, while constantly speaking of efforts to "de-risk" explicitly with regards to China, and implicitly with regards to Russia. On top of this both imports and exports with the US have skyrocketed since 2022.

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2021: Imports = €232 billion, Exports = €399 billion

2022: €359, €508

2024: €335, €532

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And 2021 is not some cherry picked COVID related oddity or something. It was a record high for exports and just under a record high (€235b in 2019) for imports. [1] So we're seeing an EU more dependent than ever upon the US while aiming to "de-risk" from the US' geopolitical adversaries. Annual results for 2025 are obviously not available yet, but so far this trend has not meaningfully changed. The EU continue to act like vassals.

I also am starting to doubt that these tariffs will be lifted, even if the DNC somehow wins 2028. They've been hesitant to make that a part of their platform, and the tariffs effectively amount to a very large tax revenue increase levied primarily at the largest corporations, which can be arbitrarily tweaked by the President - enabling him to, in effect, unilaterally raise or lower taxes by Executive Order. Government 'temporary emergency measures' are rarely temporary. That's where federal income taxes come from, and even the requirement of passports. We'll see, but I think we're looking at the new normal.

[1] - https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/isdb_results/factsheets/country...