It would be necessary to have the list of past predictions from UBS for this figure to have any meaning. Otherwise you fall into the trap of "Economists successfully predicted 10 of the last 4 recessions".
In addition to this, I think the headline is confused because the article later says: "UBS averaged the hard data together with inverted yield curve and credit markets to produce an aggregate recession probability of 52% for July..."
So 52%, not 93%, and I can't find a link to where UBS published this information.
But here are some other recent figures from UBS (or at least attributed to them):
It seems betting markets are now allowed in the US? I keep seeing advertisements for them. They'd be an awesome tool for this stuff.
Edit: there's one open bet on a US recession in 2025 on Kalshi that's gone down to only a 5% chance. Sort of fascinating how it's exact opposite of what TFA is saying. I'd link but not sure if that's kosher.
The betting markets are all betting based on whether the US with announce that it's in a recession (I think), which probably has different (lower) odds than actually being in a recession. It at least makes sense that it's different, but that's a huge difference.
I guess it's kinda like betting on who will win an election vs. betting on a candidate conceding an election. The odds aren't necessarily the same, even though they're (on paper) closely related events.
> UBS notes that it is not yet forecasting a recession at this time, but anticipates an extended phase of stagnant economic growth. Its own "credit metrics-based" recession probability, Fortune writes, has roughly doubled to 41 percent since January.
What is the point in a discussion if no one reads the actual article?
Keep in mind that is actually a bet both that there is a recession and that the US government admits there's a recession. The odds of that are probably viewed as different than the odds of just a recession.
No, you're trying to draw an equivalence with the Fed here, and its not at all valid. The current US administration fired the BLS commissioner for a bad jobs report and is actively suing news outlets (and installing "fairness checkers" at others). That destroys credibility. There have been accusations that the Fed put their finger on the scale for Biden but none of that is grounded in actual fact; just the fact that the Fed is not aggressively cutting rates just because the President asks for it.
It would be necessary to have the list of past predictions from UBS for this figure to have any meaning. Otherwise you fall into the trap of "Economists successfully predicted 10 of the last 4 recessions".
In addition to this, I think the headline is confused because the article later says: "UBS averaged the hard data together with inverted yield curve and credit markets to produce an aggregate recession probability of 52% for July..."
So 52%, not 93%, and I can't find a link to where UBS published this information.
But here are some other recent figures from UBS (or at least attributed to them):
2022-05-05: 0% https://www.ubs.com/global/en/investment-bank/insights-and-d...
2022-06-21: 40% https://finance.yahoo.com/news/odds-hard-landing-u-economy-2...
2022-08-30: 60% https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/ubs-raises-...
2023-07-19: Goldman Sachs says 20% https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-probabili...
2024-08-27: 25% https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/ubs-wealth-management-rai...
I think the number is largely useless, and this article is even moreso.
It seems betting markets are now allowed in the US? I keep seeing advertisements for them. They'd be an awesome tool for this stuff.
Edit: there's one open bet on a US recession in 2025 on Kalshi that's gone down to only a 5% chance. Sort of fascinating how it's exact opposite of what TFA is saying. I'd link but not sure if that's kosher.
The betting markets are all betting based on whether the US with announce that it's in a recession (I think), which probably has different (lower) odds than actually being in a recession. It at least makes sense that it's different, but that's a huge difference.
I guess it's kinda like betting on who will win an election vs. betting on a candidate conceding an election. The odds aren't necessarily the same, even though they're (on paper) closely related events.
Let’s say, I know recession begins (whatever that means) in exactly 60 days. What are the financially savvy moves to make free money?
Given this bonkers market, even if 100% of the world recognized the US was in recession, I am not sure what you can predict would happen.
Invest in gold mining stocks and/or ETFs (see NUGT).
Actually, you're already a little late on this. Gold is up almost 40% in 2025 but most observers seem to think it still has room to run.
Doesn't gold also go down during a market crash?
go to cash so you can buy assets at a lower price
Dollar lost 11% this year.
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/?matchtype=e&tim...
https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/us-dollar-de...
Could always buy EUR or CHF
well aware. i'm still living in the US, using US dollars to buy US-based assets
> UBS notes that it is not yet forecasting a recession at this time, but anticipates an extended phase of stagnant economic growth. Its own "credit metrics-based" recession probability, Fortune writes, has roughly doubled to 41 percent since January.
What is the point in a discussion if no one reads the actual article?
https://archive.today/zIjRL
https://fortune.com/2025/09/02/recession-probability-93-perc... | https://archive.today/AYnNH
based on this https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME we are nowhere close.
"the hard data"
Then perhaps they can just make a program that emits the exact probability at any time - and emit a chart like polymarket's
more likely bias.
polymarket says 8%
https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025
Keep in mind that is actually a bet both that there is a recession and that the US government admits there's a recession. The odds of that are probably viewed as different than the odds of just a recession.
yeah so true. Kind of like how the Fed sometimes misses on their actions, it's not realtime data, always looking months backward huh?
No, you're trying to draw an equivalence with the Fed here, and its not at all valid. The current US administration fired the BLS commissioner for a bad jobs report and is actively suing news outlets (and installing "fairness checkers" at others). That destroys credibility. There have been accusations that the Fed put their finger on the scale for Biden but none of that is grounded in actual fact; just the fact that the Fed is not aggressively cutting rates just because the President asks for it.
wow tell us something we didnt know
Bears are getting desperate and wishing for a recession,eh?