It would be necessary to have the list of past predictions from UBS for this figure to have any meaning. Otherwise you fall into the trap of "Economists successfully predicted 10 of the last 4 recessions".
It would be necessary to have the list of past predictions from UBS for this figure to have any meaning. Otherwise you fall into the trap of "Economists successfully predicted 10 of the last 4 recessions".
In addition to this, I think the headline is confused because the article later says: "UBS averaged the hard data together with inverted yield curve and credit markets to produce an aggregate recession probability of 52% for July..."
So 52%, not 93%, and I can't find a link to where UBS published this information.
But here are some other recent figures from UBS (or at least attributed to them):
2022-05-05: 0% https://www.ubs.com/global/en/investment-bank/insights-and-d...
2022-06-21: 40% https://finance.yahoo.com/news/odds-hard-landing-u-economy-2...
2022-08-30: 60% https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/ubs-raises-...
2023-07-19: Goldman Sachs says 20% https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-probabili...
2024-08-27: 25% https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/ubs-wealth-management-rai...
I think the number is largely useless, and this article is even moreso.
It seems betting markets are now allowed in the US? I keep seeing advertisements for them. They'd be an awesome tool for this stuff.
Edit: there's one open bet on a US recession in 2025 on Kalshi that's gone down to only a 5% chance. Sort of fascinating how it's exact opposite of what TFA is saying. I'd link but not sure if that's kosher.
Is there one for 2026? I’m guessing if there is you’ll see one trending down while the other is trending up, for obvious reasons.
The betting markets are all betting based on whether the US with announce that it's in a recession (I think), which probably has different (lower) odds than actually being in a recession. It at least makes sense that it's different, but that's a huge difference.
I guess it's kinda like betting on who will win an election vs. betting on a candidate conceding an election. The odds aren't necessarily the same, even though they're (on paper) closely related events.