> Don’t bother predicting which future we'll get. Build capabilities that thrive in either scenario.
I feel this is a bit like the "don't be poor" advice (I'm being a little mean here maybe, but not too much). Sure, focus on improving understanding & judgement - I don't think anybody really disagrees that having good judgement is a valuable skill, but how do you improve that? That's a lot trickier to answer, and that's the part where most people struggle. We all intuitively understand that good judgement is valuable, but that doesn't make it any easier to make good judgements.
Make lots of predictions and write down your thought process (seriously write them down!) once the result is in, analyze whether you were right. Were you right for the right reasons? Were you wrong but had the right thought process mostly?
Do it every day for years.
I tried this! Made a list of long-term (10y I think) predictions. Posted it on social media so that I can come back to it later, and also so that it's public & keeps me honest. And by social media, I mean "Google Circles" - tells you everything you need to know about my long term predictions, I guess...
The role of the entrepreneur is predicting future states of the market and deploying present capital accordingly. Beck is advocating a game-theory optimal strategy.
Judgment is a skill improved through reps. Sturgeon’s law (ninety percent of everything is crap) combined with vibe code spewage will create lots of volume quickly. What this does not accelerate is the process of learning from how bad choices ripple through the system lifecycle.
It's just experience, i.e. a collection of personal reference points against seeing how said judgements have played out over time in reality. This is what can't be replaced.
I think the current state of AI is absolutely abysmal, borderline harmful for junior inexperienced devs who will get led down a rabbit hole they cannot recognize. But for someone who really knows what they are doing it has been transformative.