There is nothing new here and the math on this is pretty simple. AI greatly increases automation, but its output is not trusted. All research so far shows AI assisted development is a zero sum game regarding time and productivity because time saved by AI is reinvested back into more thorough code reviews than were otherwise required.
Ultimately, this will become a people problem more than a financial problem. People that lack the confidence to code without AI will cost less to hire and dramatically more to employ, no differently than people reliant on large frameworks. All historical data indicates employers will happily eat that extra cost if it means candidates are easier to identify and select because hiring and firing remain among the most serious considerations for technology selection.
Candidates, currently thought of 10x, that are productive without these helpers will continue to remain no more or less elusive than they are now. That means employers must choose between higher risks with higher selection costs for the potentially higher return on investment knowing that ROE is only realized if these high performance candidates are allowed to execute with high productivity. Employers will gladly eat increased expenses if they can qualify lower risks to candidate selection.
You're assuming it's a binary between coding with or without AI.
In my experience, a 10x developer that can code without AI becomes a 100x developer because the menial tasks they'd delegate to less-skilled employees while setting technical direction can now be delegated to an AI instead.
If your only skill is writing boilerplate in a framework, you won't be employed to do that with AI. You will not have a job at all and the 100xer will take your salary.
The thing is, the 100x can't be in all the verticals, speak all the languages, be a warm body required by legislation, etc, etc. Plus that 100x just became a 10x (x 10x) bus factor.
This will reduce demand for devs but it's super likely that after a delay, demand for software development will go even higher.
The only thing I don't know is how that demand for software development will look like. It could be included in DevOps work or IT Project Management work or whatever.
I guess we'll see in a few years.
Too bad that when people actually tried to measure this, turned out developers were actually slower.
Those are some strange guesses.