You're assuming it's a binary between coding with or without AI.
In my experience, a 10x developer that can code without AI becomes a 100x developer because the menial tasks they'd delegate to less-skilled employees while setting technical direction can now be delegated to an AI instead.
If your only skill is writing boilerplate in a framework, you won't be employed to do that with AI. You will not have a job at all and the 100xer will take your salary.
The thing is, the 100x can't be in all the verticals, speak all the languages, be a warm body required by legislation, etc, etc. Plus that 100x just became a 10x (x 10x) bus factor.
This will reduce demand for devs but it's super likely that after a delay, demand for software development will go even higher.
The only thing I don't know is how that demand for software development will look like. It could be included in DevOps work or IT Project Management work or whatever.
I guess we'll see in a few years.
Too bad that when people actually tried to measure this, turned out developers were actually slower.
Those are some strange guesses.