Knowing nearly nothing about the stock market, I say some time has to pass before we truly know whether these current (and probably temporary) consequences will persist.
I mean, people sign the death sentences of companies that have gradual decline of their stock prices over the course of some mere two months... and then it rebounds, and then you check the one-year graphs and are wondering why were you worried.
So I don't know. Is it really so bad? Honest question. I am a layman.
I agree with your point to a certain degree. I think we should be willing to try bad/risky ideas occasionally if just to remind ourselves why they are bad. However:
1. It can take years to make something and seconds to break it. These changes are so drastic and damaging that we may permanently set our economy back decades, especially when if other countries no longer trust us.
2. It puts a lot of faith in politicians to admit mistakes. The disastrous trade policies of the 1930s were never gotten rid of until after they led to WWII.
It's like touching the stovetop after already having been burned, why would you do it? It's not like the tariffs promised were well thought out / structured to actually boost FDI and domestic manufacturing.
The current one-year graph is now in negative territory. And economists are saying there's a good chance we're headed for a global recession. The stagflation of the 70s is a real possibility, although employment news for March was good.
Right now countries around the world are re-organizing their trading patterns in ways that will have permanent effects. Even if Trump cancels the tariffs tomorrow, he would have to convince the rest of the world that he'll never do anything like this again -- and that actually he (and the US) are reliable trading partners. I just can't see how he'd do it if he wanted to, and I don't think he wants to.
The Atlantic blew it, by continuing to equivocate around whether a "trade deficit" should be considered bad in the first place. Like all these Orwellian upside-down terms [0], it should really be called a trade surplus, as in we are getting more stuff from the other country than we're giving to them! Like duh, this is a no-brainer beneficial and enviable position. And Trump's goal is to end this, presumably to turn this country into an impoverished work camp ruled over by hollow charlatans like himself.
[0] eg "the deficit" should really be named the surplus as it's money representing the collected proceeds from our world wide demurrage currency that other countries still keep buying into because using it is just that advantageous.
> Right now countries around the world are re-organizing their trading patterns in ways that will have permanent effects.
I would say that during COVID it was much, MUCH more serious. And yet here we are, back in years long bull market.
Just took some trillions to be printed across the world to be ingested by financial markets to get into it. No biggie.
COVID was basically an act of god that effected everyone and for whom no single actor could be blamed.
This is the thoughtless incineration of trust in a network of relationships, and that has to be earned back.
It's unclear how long that will take even if the GOP loses the next few presidential elections given how much US policy can change from one term to the next.
The world will be waiting to see if Trumpism ends with Trump or if it becomes something they have to account for possibly taking power every four years.
This has ramifications for any long-term investment into the US like factories and manufacturing. The risk has just shot up and will be much slower to come down.
I think in the pandemic everyone knew it would end at some point, just not when.
With Trump… he's already talking about a third term, despite the constitution.
it even goes beyond trump unfortunately. how can others be sure that we won't someone like him again or worse in 8 years from now. Our system does not have safeguards against lunatics like him I would not trust the US either if I were from some other country.
That makes sense on the outset, thank you.
Any details on that re-organization of trading patterns?
We don't know because it's literally day 2, but e.g.,: https://www.axios.com/2025/04/03/trump-tariffs-canada-europe...