That's a great writeup, and great references too.
> OpenAI needs at least $5 billion in new capital a year to survive. This would require it to raise more money than has ever been raised by any startup in history
They were probably toast before, but after Zuck decided to take it personally and made free alternatives for most use cases they definitely are, since if they had any notable revenue from selling API access it will just keep dropping.
I really would not be surprised to see OpenAI collapse - founders leaving like rats from a sinking ship is not a good sign, and not indicative of any AGI breakthrough on the horizon. Would not be surprised to see Brockman's "sabbatical" become permanent.
I have to wonder how long Anthropic can remain independent too, although at least they don't have toxic workplace and founder exodus issues to deal with. Maybe they get acquired by Amazon?