I think they have a future as a "normal" car company, but in order to do that they'd have to manage to deliver a new "normal car" model at some point, and accept normal stock prices.
That EV market share direction in the US, though .. really bad compared to non-petrostates (except Norway)
They’ve never been a normal car company. And that’s the problem.
They don’t do a good job at the car company part. They make nice cars, but the company part has issues. Quick example… I was very happy to drive a model 3 for many years. But the constant changes in price of their new cars destroyed any resale value mine had. Every time Tesla was having a bad quarter, the value of my car dropped. That’s not the way to get me to buy another one.
There are certainly other areas where they could improve too. But my point being - they’ve never been all that good at (or interested in) what it takes to drive long term success in selling cars. It’s just too long of a time horizon for them.
I never understood why people care about "resale value" of a car. I buy a car to drive it until it's done. I don't buy a gaming PC and worry about resale value, or a polo, or sneakers, or a nice mop. I buy stuff to use it.
I don’t know that you have to agree with typical consumer behavior to accept it as a reality, though. And resale value does matter to people who don’t drive cars into the ground, because trade-in value affects your purchasing power when you do decide to get a new one.
And even if you do keep cars indefinitely, it can still be an important consideration because it affects how things work out when you need to make an insurance claim. It means your car is both more likely to be declared a total loss and more likely to be worth less than what you still owe for it when it does get totaled.
Because if you desperately need cash, you can trade in the $80,000 luxury suv for a $20,000 subcompact, and use that cash to pay rent and for food. It's a depreciating asset and sometimes a money sink, sure, but if you live somewhere you need a car anyway, some people choose the more expensive ones.
That's... Financially irresponsible. You build your cushion in non-depreciating assets. If you are approaching situation where you would desperately need cash, you prepare for in some way different from buying luxurious suvs.
There are some situations that can wipe your savings - even large ones - really quickly (e.g. cancer).
Wouldn't healthcare cover a large portion of these kinds of expenses? At least they do in quite a few parts of the world.
Not sure why you're being downvoted. Most parts of the world yes. Somehow in the US, no. My sister had cancer for 7 years and I think I probably paid close to $50k on her treatments because the treatments her insurance covered weren't sufficient so we had to take her to an out of network clinic (Mayo).
The "most parts of the world yes" is absolutely not true. Unless you consider G20 countries to be most of the world. In most parts of the world if you want actual state of the art treatment, you've got to pay from your own pocket.
It seems strange to me not to. Because if you don't sell it, you're basically the kind of person who drives a new car one day, but ten years later, you're a person who drives a ten year old car?
Speaking as someone who mostly drives 20 year old cars.
I get your point. But look at this from Tesla’s point of view. Why should they care? They will want to sell as many cars as possible. If they sell me a car, that’s just one sale. However, every marketing book will tell you that it’s easier to sell to an existing customer.
If my car (an asset) has more resale value, I’m more likely to sell it to buy a new one. They should be trying to protect my resale value — if they want me as a repeat customer. Even if I want to buy another Tesla, if my resale value isn’t high, I’d wait longer to buy a new one.
Or, what I’m leasing the car (reasonable for an EV and used to have better tax incentives)? If the end of lease value is low, I have to spend more on the depreciation over the lease. That makes my monthly payment higher. Instead, if the end of lease value is higher, I have a lower monthly payment and I’m more likely to buy the car.
Either way, Tesla was good at selling one car. They need to get better at selling the second or third one.
If Tesla is dropping the price of their cars, then that means you can buy a new car for less. It makes no sense to want to overpay for a consumable item at time t+1, regardless of what you paid at time t.
If cost(t) >> cost(t+1), then I'm not going to be able to afford to buy that new car. I'm going to be underwater on that deal. That also means that Tesla has one fewer possible sale. I'm not overpaying for a new car, which means that if Tesla would like to have more sales, they should try to keep their prices more constant.
Remember, this is from the Tesla point of view... and it's a long time-horizon perspective. It's a much easier decision from the customer's point of view.
(And there are other ways for companies to incentivize sales with discounts and promotions that don't obviously impact the "value" of the car).
Because an old car often costs more in maintenance. It's best to re-sale it before it gives you too much trouble. Basically, you can have a more reliable car with no extra cost. And some people like modern and new cars and upgrade every few years.
For a lot of people cars are less a way to get from point A to point B and more of a status symbol, so they like to drive a new or at least newer car.
Personally I'm with you. I love my car because its exactly enough car for my needs. I bought it new (in 2016) and I never want to sell it. I'd get so much less (or more to the point I can't buy a new car) for the same money I spent on it.
pretty sure they average out to holding their value better or at worst in line with other brands
The problem is that transition would require a ~95% drop in stock price, and the company isn't going to survive that.
GM - $74.5B market cap (6.2M cars sold annually)
Ford - $50.2B (4.6M)
Volkswagen - $40B (9M)
BYD - $100B (4.6M)
Toyota - $256B (11.3M)
Hyundai - $57B (7.3M)
Tesla - $1.4T (1.6M)
The numbers simply don't add up.
A stock drop does not in and of itself kill a company which has positive cashflow, although it may give the executives heart attacks and leave it vulnerable to takeover.
If the company keeps the startup structure of paying employees in stock options and growing by VC money into the several billions value, yes a stock drop can kill it in and of itself.
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1. compare debt, tesla is cash rich while old OEMs are saddled with debt
2. compare growth opportunities, ie https://www.tesla.com/robotaxi - rollout is going well, and every cybercab produced nets what ? $25k/year? $75k/year? vs $5-8k once per car sold?
I don't like Musk, but this is the correct answer. So many people are trying to fit Tesla into the old OEM box but they are not a car company. They are a technology company that sells cars.
I don't know if robotaxi will take off, but if it does, it massively undercuts Waymo because the vehicles are just so much cheaper to make and are made in house.
Just like WeWork is not a real estate company, but a technology company that does real estate. They had nearly $0.5m net income in 2016, but presumably the future is bright.
Telsa/Musk is a cult of personality. SpaceX's valuation makes no sense either.
On that basis if Musk overdoses on ketamine or something then 95% devaluation may well happen.
Musk has said Tesla's future is cybercabs and robots, not a normal car company.
Yeah, by basically ignoring regulation. That's going to be a lot tougher since the midterm results. The government will no longer be giving him any easy passes.
Oooh, normal cars. Now there's a concept. Can we get a real EV minivan? Not a gimmick like the Buzz. I've got kids and go on long road trips to visit family. Seats, cargo capacity, range, and 800V charging speed.
Closest thing is like the Ioniq 9 but the cargo space really sucks.
For a polished product that ticks all the boxes, I would pay a premium for this.
You might need to move to China for that.
XPeng X9 - Seven seats, 800V charging, and a third row that folds into the floor. The long-range version has 382 miles WLTP range and charges 10–80% in approximately 12 minutes under ideal conditions.
Li Auto MEGA - Seven seats, 800V architecture, 441 miles CLTC range, and manufacturer-claimed charging that adds 311 miles of CLTC range in 10 minutes. Li Auto says its trunk holds four 28-inch suitcases with all seven seats occupied.
Zeekr 009 - Seven-seat versions, up to 460 miles CLTC range, and 10–80% charging in as little as 10 minutes on the upgraded 900V model. Very luxurious, though some versions offer less rear cargo space.
Denza D9 EV - Seven seats, 115-kWh battery, up to 497 miles CLTC range, and BYD Flash Charging claims of 10–70% in five minutes using compatible ultra-high-power chargers.
China is years ahead of the West (EU/US) in terms of EVs.
The cars you describe are quite popular in HK, and typically family cars chauffeured by, well, a chauffeur. Carries a family of 4 plus a maid or two.
Surely chauffeurs will be replaced by autonomous driving modes soon? Will HK experience gridlock as all the robo cars take laps around the block?
I'm sorry not everyone is swayed by LED lighting and plastic cupholders in fake chrome.
Lucid Gravity. We just picked one up after cross shopping an R1S. Its been solid so far the interior packaging is impressive. I was sold after driving it. Although it is more of a wagon than anything.
I've been seesawing between R1S and Gravity. Granted, I cant afford either right now, but planning for the future. But it made me realize : I don't know if I trust that Lucid will be around in a few years. Rivian seems more stable. And I don't want to buy a $100k car from a company that may not be around in a few years because then I basically have a brick.
A Mercedes VLE maybe? It ticks all the boxes incl premium price.
Doesn't have the doors that go __-----