i agree that they are, objectively, new entrants, but that does somewhat mischaracterize, in the same sense that calling Ford a new entrant into the car industry after they came out with the Model T. like... they are creating the market into which they are entering. ChatGPT galvanized this entire phenomenon.

i do agree that there is a good chance that one of these post- OpenAI/Anthropic competitors probably will get some sort of unanticipated foothold, if only because enough talent will drain out over time. what i push back on is the idea that being 90% as good as frontier models is actually good enough to matter in even the slightest. especially since we know that the "real" internal models are so much further advanced than what we get access to publicly.

i absolutely agree that it isn't impossible-- if the only thing stopping a new entrant is capital (as in: they have the trillion-dollar idea necessary to be competitive) that will absolutely never be a true impediment to a worthy competitor.