for real i hold the opposing view i think openai will be a 5-10T dollar company in the next 5 years, but im speculating just as much as he is.
for real i hold the opposing view i think openai will be a 5-10T dollar company in the next 5 years, but im speculating just as much as he is.
Just a tad bit more ; it like saying either an event will happen or not so probability is 50%.
Your scenario is certainly possible, that doesn’t make both predictions equally (un)likely.
I still think OpenAI holds on as a Google competitor and Anthropic does fine as a business tool. Do they match their outsized spending with future growth? Well, that I'm not very confident about. A lot of this really comes down to what is the business model of integrating AI with 3rd party systems and I don't see that anyone has truly cracked that yet.
I'm also speculating that they'll kindly donate at least 1 T of that to me out of the kindness of their heart.
At least you admit you're speculating (we all are). They confidently just say its a foregone conclusion.
If they're actually that confident I hope they short the stock long term with basically all their money.
I also speculate that OpenAI and Anthropic will crater, but I also expect that the market will remain irrational much longer then anyone shorting it today will remain solvent.
So yes, I believe it's going to leave a smoking hole in the ground, but I won't be betting money on it.
If you run a traditional short (borrow and sell the shares), you need to be right on the direction and the timing to make any money. One random surge in the price can kill your short even if said surge is short-lived.