Anthropic is in the worst position of the AI labs. As far as investors and "the market" are concerned, the only AI that matters is the one built into your phone, car, your TV, your smart home and appliances. Anthropic has none of that share. It's all Google, Apple, and OpenAI powering Siri.
Personally, I don't think that tracks. If you are measuring "share" as share of vibes or "AI adoption" sure, but having AI in a phone, TV, smart home, etc doesn't make anyone any significant money. Hyperscaling isn't happening because there is an insatiable demand for retail AI usage. People are subscription'd out. A significant portion of people don't want AI in a lot of these things, another portion don't think they need it, and the ones that are eager to adopt it can use AI to bootstrap AI tools they use through a token router. You will have some revenue from retail AI but that isn't surprising considering I quite often have to provide tech support to people to help them cancel their subscription to a calculator app they've been paying $20 a month for.
> People are subscription'd out
No, they're not. Maybe you are?
> A significant portion of people don't want AI in a lot of these things
Not true. People love AI. Specifically Android and iPhone AI. I doubt they even know or care about Anthropic or OpenAI.
> the ones that are eager to adopt it can use AI to bootstrap AI tools they use through a token router
Absolutely microscopic share of the overall market for "AI" users. We are hobbyists.
Don’t agree with this
Personally I view it like this - did ant and OAI push the industry forward yup? Will they fail as businesses though? Yup. Why? Business economics - as long as cost efficient Chinese replica’s exist it’s fine. Unless the us govt artificially makes the frontier market large then I see no chance of a large enough market that sustains current valuations.
More intelligence alone != more progress. And more intelligence in the context of business != more productivity that shows up in financial performance.
Life is more nuanced.
No, the only AI that matters is one that large corporations are paying for. And that is Claude.
That's very true but unfortunately Anthropic have locked in contracts for so much compute that they absolutely need to expand beyond the corporations currently paying them.
Realistically they need to 3x their revenue to pay for their compute. While that's plausible, I'm not convinced that it can all come from developers. Many many developers are already using Claude. I think they need consumer, or some other market too.
Wouldn't OpenAI be in the same boat? As far as I'm aware, they don't control any means of distribution either.
OpenAI models power Apple's Siri assistant
They don't?
https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/09/siri-ai-a-profoundly-...
> These new capabilities are powered by the next generation of Apple Foundation Models, custom-built in collaboration with Google and its Gemini models for deeply integrated Apple Intelligence experiences.
They powered the initial "Apple Intelligence". The newer version is Gemini.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/12/apple-google-ai-siri-gemini.... ?