How many people in this thread think that when the Dems win midterms the AI boom has a hard switch to a bust? I really feel like they will rapidly expedite the process instead of having air come out. I definitely didn't think the market would run up right to the date though.
The major buyers of inference are not government. The major funders are not government. And the industry isn’t predicated on some sort of government backstop (like perhaps banking).
What’s your proposed mechanism here? Maybe data center buildout risk, but that seems mostly local policy?
First things:
1. The AI race has been essentially been a nation cold war arms race with China - so that would be the government backing the race. 2. The previous Biden administration was going to put a lock down on all things AI (remember: The 10²⁶ FLOPs Rule) 3. The populist anger about data centers will have a strong political arm to investigate and shut down efforts (at all levels). 4. Energy buildout will be intentionally slow down through various mechanisms controlled by dems. 5. Financial regulatory bodies will have strong teeth.
FWIW this isn't meant to be political but more a state of play looking at the real factors of Dems getting power and the impact to the market place.
> Energy buildout will be intentionally slow down through various mechanisms controlled by dems.
Why? Democrats still care about electrification because of climate change. If anything I think energy buildout will accelerate.
The rest is balanced on a knife edge.
Marginally greater skepticism is probably a good thing in terms of avoiding a big shock when some big AI player, like Oracle for example, gets into serious financial trouble.
As a Danish zillennial I think the average American zillennial is far more radically anti-capitalist, anti-business than the average Danish one. Half of them may be good at hiding the sentiments behind right-wing-coded "anti-globalist" and "anti-H-1B" narratives but it's obviously left-wing coded populism.
For the rest of us, that also means the S&P 500 free lunch* will soon be over.
American zillennials are going to get their free healthcare and free higher education, and they'll do it in a way that makes France look like a well-managed, investor-friendly country.
*Unless you own real estate in Copenhagen, one of the biggest sources of wealth creation in Denmark since 2015 has been our pension funds and their exposure to US stocks.
The Danish status quo is radically anti-capitalist and anti-business by American standards. Do you think the average Danish zillennial is in favor of moving to a more American model (privatized healthcare, minimal union protections, etc.) ?