We are now at the mercy of labs to provide frontier models as open-weight. Now that even some Chinese labs are releasing their models as weight-available, what stops them from prohibiting certain internal uses of new models? What about public chatbots?
Open models we have now will become obsolete within a few years. Imagine a world where our last open models were from the GPT-2 era.
I believe we need truly sovereign models, not in the Western sense, but from a community perspective. We need a model line that stays open-source across generations.
The problem is the massive amount of money, data, and talent to produce anything remotely competitive. Ideas have been floated about distributed training, but training requires insanely fast interconnect between nodes making it impossible with the current methodologies we have. Now if you mean funded at a national level, that seems more doable so long as the training runs are centralized in big DCs.
Great idea, let’s counter the power of a handful of large private organisations by putting that power in the hands of a single large government. What could possibly go wrong?
There are lots of governments around the world - some big, some small. Lots of discussions around digital sovereignty are framed in this manner - a model for Brazil, a model for Japan, etc. There certainly could be coalitions of governments or governments could strike out on their own. Whatever floats your boat.
How about a joint effort by multiple governments, done fully in the open, with all results, including training data and methodology fully open source?
Yea and let's just compare Starship and SLS to see how well the works
Probably not the greatest comparison - SLS was successful on the first launch
There's always going to be some nerds out there that want to make and release a model as open, and share their knowledge along the way. I'm not too concerned.
The fear you're sharing has been shared since day 1 of open-weight models and it has yet to come to fruition.
Further, regardless of what any of these labs license their model as, the end user who has downloaded the weights can still use them for virtually any purpose (synthetic data, classification, etc) as much as they want and there is no way to reasonably enforce a license on those outputs.
So even if you can't run a service using this model's weights (without a license), the weights still do provide utility for training new models with any other license.
*Edit, responding to the replies: Constraints give rise to ingenuity. Who knows how we'll be training models in the future. Hopefully in a distributed fashion, maybe with some kind of consensus-driven training dataset selection. Crowd funding, etc. There's too many people that want this, and the knowledge on how to do it is out there (many times by now)
I think this is a quite optimistic view... releasing a SOTA model is a collosal capital investment, and unlike free software, it's not iterative - you can't make a small model and improve it one step at a time, you need to risk the whole load of cash, expertise and GPU time up front.
It's only happening now because labs have bucket tons of VC cash to burn and need a big public flex to raise more cash, or because they're subsidised by the Chinese government. I'm not massively confident either of those will stay true forever.
I'm not an expert, but maybe updating an existing open-weights model to give it up to date knowledge would be more tractable?
There's not even any point in that IMO. A model doesn't "know" things anyway everything useful it's going to get from tool calls and context.
I think the problem is up to date knowledge isn't really the difficult or useful bit. We're sort of moving to a world where the real value in training comes from tool calling and performance over long context - your models shouldn't really be relying on their internal knowledge, but instead calling various tools. But the performance gap between now and six months for that is pretty huge.
Unless "some nerds" means "billionaires" - they may want to release new models as open source, but they will not have enough money to train a worthwhile model.
A completely different direction is to remove the fair use allowance for training on copyrighted information (unless you e.g. open source your weights).
We already had that world, the axis of evil stopped releasing open source models years ago. It’s only because of the Chinese that we kept getting them.
OpenAI really should change the name to something like EgoAI or AltmanAI.
We already have all the open weight models though. They can't retroactively close them.
Of course they can. They're expensive to host, and if they're legally scrubbed off of places like huggingface then they are for all practical purposes 'closed' as in unavailable to people who don't already use them and if they're illegal or outpaced by Sota the ones who have copies can't even use them.
Thousands or more people already have copies and the license explicitly is irrevocable and allows redistribution. So if they take it off HF and HF is ok with that, people will just upload to anywhere else.
"outpaced by SOTA" doesn't matter at all, the models we have are plenty good enough for most real tasks.
With distillation being so effective I do wonder whether we can just crowd source open alternatives.
If it is capital intensive and we require the work be done in the public benefit, the only options are international consortia or nationalization. Non-profits will be guided by the interests of the rich and are unaccountable to the public. Worker cooperatives are unlikely to be well capitalized (because what rich person would want to invest and not have control) and will still have private profit incentives.
Peer production processes (like open source) require that the inputs be specialized knowledge and relatively small amounts of capital.
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