It's been cheaper than nuclear for a while now, it was only a matter of time.
Personally i'm waiting for the next iterations of Kesterite cells.
If we can get single cells to crack ~20% efficiency. With a tandem cell architecture, it's going to become the new standard overnight.
Durability of silicon cells or better, but orders of magnitude $ cheaper to produce, and without the need to use toxic agents as in perovskite cells.
We're movin' fast.
For over a decade we were stuck at ~12% efficiency. And in the last 4 years (probably with AI help) we've cracked 15% efficiency
https://interestingengineering.com/energy/chinese-researcher...
Few more years, and with a bit of luck, we'll all be around to see solar panels that cost 1/10th of what they do now.
> we'll all be around to see solar panels that cost 1/10th of what they do now
I get the impression they're already really damn cheap, to the point that the issues are more so with grid interconnections, land use, and storage
Installation labour cost and inverter cost are now the largest expenses.
I wonder if as panel costs goes down, will people start to wire their homes again for 48V DC? You could conceivably run your HVAC and fridges at least off of it, this would negate the need for a larger (more costly) inverter.
> Installation labour cost and inverter cost are now the largest expenses.
That's true for the solar development project, but such a project typically ignores grid costs.
Unless you build from scratch, and white box stores suddenly start selling a 48v version of every standard household appliance (with industrial supply chain to support that market), inverters are not going anywhere.
The only place it makes sense is personal tech and computing, where USB chargers are cheap and ubiquitous, with technology replacement in 2-5 years instead of 5-10 for standard appliances.
it would probably slowly start coming out as dual ac and dc connections and start with "garage appliances" like your laundry, central ac / vac and car charger since the garage is the cheapest place to wire something into.
Why not 120V DC?
Mainly thinking 48V as that is already a standard in the marine and automotive world. AFAIK 120V DC is not a commonly used standard ? (Maybe in aviation?)
Most modern aircraft have a 400V 360-800Hz three-phase grid, as this allows thinner (read:lighter) conductors. There are some high voltage DC rails on some plains in the range 270VDC or ±270VDC.
On the usage side for instrumentation, avionics etc. it is usually 28 VDC.
50V is the limit for "safe extra low voltage" rules. Considered to be touch safe.
It would be great to work on my home's electrical system without the risk of straight-up killing myself. Especially considering most of the things I plug into my wall (lighting, TVs, tablets, phones, etc.) don't need to draw anything like 120/240V. I've debated installing low volt circuits for things like lighting and such, but I think the hassle won't make it worth it.
1. It is not considered safe voltage, so you have all the downsides of the current AC grid with the downsides of high DC voltages
2. Nearly no equipment uses 120VDC by itself, so you would need specialized DC-DC converters that can deal with the 120VDC input to go down to usual voltages like 48VD, 24VDC or 12VDC
DC also has issues with arcing, so switches get complicated and expensive.
Hopefully we can move to a micro solar system where everyone is responsible for a fraction of the generation and storage
> we'll all be around to see solar panels that cost 1/10th of what they do now
I doubt that. Currently the cells itself makes only <50% (maybe <30% meanwhile) of a PV module. So the limit to the bottom is by the glass and frame and cable, not by the cells.
But $/watts can significantly go down with more efficiency.
I found most people fixate on the price of the cells/panels, but forget that the rest of the installation required to use said panels easily exceeds the price of the panels by a factor of 3~4. Think mounting hardware, cabling, inverters, batteries, control hardware, labour, etc. It all adds up.
I've been pricing a PV system recently, and I was surprised at how low the price of panels already is. In most estimates I received the panels itself were less than 20% of the total installation costs. Granted, I am looking at a 3-phase system with plenty of battery capacity. For a more typical household setup with 1-phase and moderate battery capacity that percentage will shift a bit.
In my case the quotes are roughly: 40x430Wp panels (~€4000), 3x (3-phase) inverter/chargers (~€5000), batteries (~€5000), auxiliaries (~€1500), cabling (~€2000), mounting hardware (~€2500), labor (~€5000), planning/permissions (~€1000). So total project price is ~25k, of which the panels are only ~€4000. And that doesn't even count the construction of a utility building to house the batteries and inverters, the EV chargers, etc.
On a side note: I found that battery prices have also dropped significantly already. If you're willing to do some assembly yourself you can get ~15kWh of LiFePO4 for just over €1k.
Also, for those wondering: for my situation the ROI of this setup is expected to be about 5 years. This will be quicker if I get an EV, which I am planning on.
ROI on 25000 EUR in 5 years?? How are you spending 5000+ EUR per year on electricity?