I think the point, with a more charitable reading of the parent comment, is that people forget the fundamental underlying technology and its inherent limitations.
"It's just a four wheeled platform powered by a box of controlled explosions" isn't a terribly useful description of a car until you get into a conversation with someone who thinks their car is depressed because it spends most of its time locked up in a garage.
I like the analogy. And yes, I'm not interested in conversing with a person who thinks that about a car.
On the other hand, the "wheeled platform powered by a box of controlled explosions" doesn't get close to capturing the impact of the car on individual freedom, the environment, the economy, and more. So if someone was saying "there's nothing to talk about here, it's just a box of controlled explosions", we can safely ignore that person too.
And I want to stress that I say all this tentatively. We still don't understand what LLMs are actually capable of or what the best way to understand them is. They may indeed be as limited as their "probabilistic database" critics suggest. Alternatively, by building a deep and incredibly complex probabilistic database of one of our primary cognitive tools, it may turn out that they are capable of much, much more, and that understanding them in "purely" mechanistic ways is not useful.
> On the other hand, the "wheeled platform powered by a box of controlled explosions" doesn't get close to capturing the impact of the car on individual freedom, the environment, the economy, and more. So if someone was saying "there's nothing to talk about here, it's just a box of controlled explosions", we can safely ignore that person too.
This is also a good point, and I agree with you 100% here. I don't think one could responsibly argue that the impact and consequences are not significant, regardless of if they believe it's near AGI or it's just fancy next token prediction.