I would guess it tends towards more likely because it can't not think of something mentioned.

But I agree, I would8 much rather have some data than reckons.

It's with noting that people do this too. They tend to vastly overetimate a low probability event that they know is possible. Often by more than one order of magnitude.

It is something worth keeping in mind when you are people throwing around personal p doom scores.

Interestingly when humans have to make a decision based upon the probability they feel, they tend to act far closer to the actual probability than what they would say the probability is.