>I don't think this was, or is, true: https://artificialanalysis.ai/evaluations/artificial-analysi... - even from a vibe check alone, it was pretty clear that K3 was missing Fable's special sauce, especially for more hands-on problems

What special sauce exactly? Refusing to work on any problems remotely connected to biology (including e.g. the book of Genesis)?

>The Chinese model lag depends on who you ask, but the current estimate seems to be about four months: https://stateofopensource.ai/

Benchmaxxing aside, most actual performance is now harness and orchestration dependent and the difference between frontier US and Chinese models is dim as best for virtually all practical tasks. The vast majority of people don't need to solve Navier-Stokes