Are we reading the same website? The predictions for China are completely fantastical - they are not falling behind and if anything the gap is narrowing, and they aren't stealing the weights because they don't need to (distilling is enough). Also the CDZ stuff is just fanfiction at this point.
Distillation only lets you keep pace with released models. By all indication, OpenAI/Anthropic’s unreleased internal models are so far ahead of Astra/Fable and every other lab that the chance of anyone else catching up is rapidly closing.
I suspect this is more marketing than fact. I don't think there's any real evidence that this is the case, just hints dropped by OpenAI and Anthropic.
Well, except the giant dump of math problems they just solved with an internal model.
That's more a function of the amount of compute they can throw at it. They can afford to let an agent run in a loop for longer than you and I can. Its not proof of a vastly superior model.
Not proof but it does waggle it's eyebrows suggestively!
Like sure the marketing is undoubtedly overblown. But in 2025 there was no amount of money you could spend to make such impressive but weirdly unreadable progress.
Agreed but the math results don't seem out of reach for the publicly available models in 2026. Certainly, they have an unrefined but superior internal model. But the math results don't prove said internal model would be as big of a leap if released today as Mythos was when it was announced.
We don't have any information other than that they are capable enough of solving unsolved math problems. Are they good at writing a good movie script? Do they understand protein ligand interactions? Who knows. Let's wait till they release the model
Do you have any source for any of that? Also haven't people been saying that China would be hopelessly distanced for the better part of 2 years, only to be proven wrong over and over again? Deepseek-r1, kimi k3, etc.
I've seen the same sentiments/reports, from X accounts known to talk to leakers.
People said the same about mythos, and o3, and gpt-4.
Most of the very recent spectacular achievements (math conjectures) were done by leveraging datacenter capacity (throwing agents and millions' worth of compute at the wall until something sticks), not any secret sauce intelligence.
That's not true, actually.
The last round they said they averaged one prompt, one agent, and 3 hours' work.
it is quite widely known that the chinese models are just quite shit for math. i think for coding tasks they really do quite alright.
No matter what happens, people just blindly claim this nonsense is still accurate. We could have AI halt tomorrow and people on Hacker News would still claim AI 2027 is on track.
Five years past the flare
a bottle drifts with its note
AI singularity next year
i thought it was meant as more of a thought experiment than a prediction?