Agree that people leaving the big two companies is going to be hard to keep a pulse on prior to IPO.

Anthropic and OpenAi are in the news, so they get the press and people go and try out their product. Large enterprise businesses are going to make larger, longer-term contracts with them and are only going to pivot if they think switching costs are easy or if they think the provider won't deliver.

The other inference producers are less well known or you need to get your cloud sales rep to tell you how to switch to them as a provider rather than Anthropic or OpenAI.

I use OpenRouter, I know switching is easy, but larger businesses tend to work in yearly cycles. DeepSeek v4 Flash came out in late April.

I agree OpenAI and Anthropic are going to struggle when the median price of running a smart-enough model keeps falling.

Edit: I also think demand for hardware will be rapidly absorbed by other companies if Anthropic or OpenAI stumble. We've finally turned hardware directly into runnable intelligence and people are not going to go back to the old ways.