How much money do they have left? It is hard for me to see how OpenAI doesn't fail at this point. There is no business, no moat. Honestly, the best outcome seems like failing up into a Microsoft acquisition at this point.
How much money do they have left? It is hard for me to see how OpenAI doesn't fail at this point. There is no business, no moat. Honestly, the best outcome seems like failing up into a Microsoft acquisition at this point.
They’re raising another $30B:
https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/openai-targets-3...
Any company that would hypothetically acquire them would need to be able to fully - and indefinitely - subsidize their unsustainable operational costs. I don't see how that's realistic even for a company like Microsoft.
The entire US economy is propped up by this bubble, so they will be propped up as much and as long as possible. Basically all money these days is going into this charade, to stop or even slow it down would cause a disastrous collapse
>The entire US economy is propped up by this bubble,
Not really. It'd be a dotcom bust, not a 2008 bust. The average American isn't substantially exposed to these companies and the banking system doesn't hinge on them, there's no systemic risk.
What it would do is wipe out the wealth of a lot of very affluent folks and private investors, which most of us could live with.
it will fail the day there is a downturn of the economy. That day will be at a 2001 or a 2008 like event - anytime within the next few years (I've no crystal ball, but strong convictions haha).
And yes, they will be acquired by a company which will have survived the next crash at a fraction of their currently estimated valuation and we will truly have the next ride of the economy .. many years ahead if 2001 is an example.
Why does it have to be such a crash? Could it be just flatlining for a long time? Or perhaps slowly going down? What makes you so sure that it will be a big booom like dotcom or 2008?
Many reasons:
- economy has been slowing down (the real one, the people) while stocks are at record high
- a long overdue business cycle which has been pushed back and back and back ...
- rates hiking (in a slowing down economy)
- bubbles, and that AI bubble is huge. Loving AI on an every day basis but revenue wise, it's not mainstream, far from it. Average people want free stuff, they're good with Google or Facebook throwing them ads, they don't want to pay $200 for a subscription and fact is, 2026 revenues are about $100b totall. Meanwhile hyperscalers are spending about $1 to $2 trillion alone in 2026, and meant to increase within the next few years. You need a lot of imagination to see how this can "flatten" nicely.
Like internet didn't disappear after 2001, AI is here to stay, too. But...
There is a moat: government contracts. Everything from NSF grant reviews, drone warfare, DHS visa processing and Medicare/Medicaid claims processing are up for grabs under the right administration.