> Doubtful they just unboxed, plugged in, and it connected to the right AP and went

Why not? iirc some of the smart TVs have been shown to find open wifi networks on their own and upload data. (I'm not sure about that though. But it's plausible and undoubtedly will be implemented some day).

I've read this argument dozens of times on HN and on HN only - I'd love to see an example of that actually provably happening anywhere in the real world.

I would love to as well. It sounds like something that's plausible but potentially a minefield of liability for the manufacturer.

I could also see some kind of partnership with ISPs to use their "public" WiFi hotspots[1]. This seems more likely since it's (probably) harder to honeypot but requires making regional deals.

[1] https://www.highspeedinternet.com/resources/is-your-router-a...

The use WiFi networks as a form of GPS, much like smartphones on first stage of geolocation