Unless you think that AI will quickly hit a wall (which seems odd considering that only a few years ago the best models had trouble doing basic math or counting the number of Rs in "strawberry"), I don't see how that's reassuring. The models will only get cheaper and more capable over time. It seems quite likely that at some point (probably before I hit retirement age) they'll be able to fully replace me at my job.
Is there any specific cognitive task that you are willing to bet that AIs won't be able to accomplish in the next 5 years? Because if not, I'm not sure we're disagreeing about predictions.
Don't frontier models still have trouble counting letters? Or am I out of date? Either way, it doesn't seem to be the same amazing rate of progress we're seeing in other areas.
It's easy to look at a fire burning through a forest and extrapolate that rate of progress across the whole world. But fire doesn't burn everything equally fast.
What other cognitive tasks will be a struggle to make progress on? I suspect there will be some, though which ones they are is anyone's guess.
Your information is out of date by several years. The letter counting issue was due to how LLMs split text input into tokens (usually using BPE). Since 2024, frontier LLMs have used chain-of-thought reasoning to spell out the letters and count them.
It has limitations for sure, I just don't expect those limitations to last. What probability would you put on the limitations being overcome in the next 5 years?
Unless you think that AI will quickly hit a wall (which seems odd considering that only a few years ago the best models had trouble doing basic math or counting the number of Rs in "strawberry"), I don't see how that's reassuring. The models will only get cheaper and more capable over time. It seems quite likely that at some point (probably before I hit retirement age) they'll be able to fully replace me at my job.
Is there any specific cognitive task that you are willing to bet that AIs won't be able to accomplish in the next 5 years? Because if not, I'm not sure we're disagreeing about predictions.
Don't frontier models still have trouble counting letters? Or am I out of date? Either way, it doesn't seem to be the same amazing rate of progress we're seeing in other areas.
It's easy to look at a fire burning through a forest and extrapolate that rate of progress across the whole world. But fire doesn't burn everything equally fast.
What other cognitive tasks will be a struggle to make progress on? I suspect there will be some, though which ones they are is anyone's guess.
Your information is out of date by several years. The letter counting issue was due to how LLMs split text input into tokens (usually using BPE). Since 2024, frontier LLMs have used chain-of-thought reasoning to spell out the letters and count them.
It has limitations for sure, I just don't expect those limitations to last. What probability would you put on the limitations being overcome in the next 5 years?