It is still a bet. Is the current model still going to be good enough next year? We have no idea what will change. If the change is minor improvements than current fable on a cheap is cheaper and better than next years sonnet on GPU. However there are plenty of things people want that maybe they will deliver and suddenly I wouldn't touch today's fable when I can run next years sonnet instead.
But I think it's a good bet. I think that in two years, if I can get opus/sonnet 5.5 or the gpt-6 models for much cheaper and faster than whatever the "frontier" is at that point, that this will probably be a great trade for most of my work. I certainly don't know that for sure, that's why it's a bet, but it's what I think right now.
I wouldn't quite say that about any of the open weight models at this point. But I'm hopeful that will change in the next generation or two of those models.
It is still a bet. Is the current model still going to be good enough next year? We have no idea what will change. If the change is minor improvements than current fable on a cheap is cheaper and better than next years sonnet on GPU. However there are plenty of things people want that maybe they will deliver and suddenly I wouldn't touch today's fable when I can run next years sonnet instead.
Yep, that's why I also described it as a bet :)
But I think it's a good bet. I think that in two years, if I can get opus/sonnet 5.5 or the gpt-6 models for much cheaper and faster than whatever the "frontier" is at that point, that this will probably be a great trade for most of my work. I certainly don't know that for sure, that's why it's a bet, but it's what I think right now.
I wouldn't quite say that about any of the open weight models at this point. But I'm hopeful that will change in the next generation or two of those models.