Maybe the best way to illustrate our point is to use weather models, as it's pretty tangible for regular people.
Weather models are ridiculously advanced running on super computers crunching a massive global network of real time data. But they still aren't anywhere close to perfect.
That being said, just because it rains on your birthday when it was said to be sunny, doesn't mean you delete your weather app, call meteorology pseudoscience, and start a substack of "the forecast was wrong again" blog posts.
People intuitively grasp this foolishness because they constantly interact with weather models. But for things they have almost no contact with, it's easy to write it off on a single "bad forecast"
(I'll also admit the caveat that not every model is as good (or bad) as weather models, another dimension at play to throw a wrench in peoples gears)
The weather is easy to measure though, which leads to a continuing improvement of the models. In a lot of fields it’s very difficult to make experiments and measure the results. In those fields models can stay very bad for a long time.
I love this analogy... The Heresy of Meteorology! Everything You Thought You Knew about Weather is Wrong. How Weather Reports are Sapping the Joy From Your Life. The Truth about Weather! The Misguided Science of Predicting Mother Nature.
It sounds funny until you meet people who actually hold those beliefs.
I've come to doubt that they really hold positive beliefs. Having had one IRL conversation with a supposed "flat earther", I quickly decided that they didn't really believe what they were saying other than to be "right". My response was to tell them that they didn't really believe it, and when they tried to convince me, I used the same "I know better" attitude on them.
Of course, they never convinced ME! Silly, wannabe flat earthers.