> Since no individual buyer cares that much about geostrategic issues

You clearly haven’t worked in enterprise in the EU. Location of data processor is the first thing they check. That’s why every major cloud has regions with different offerings, not just for HA and redundancy

They care because the are 'required to', otherwise those 'offerings' wouldn't even exist. It's mostly the result of regulatory action.

I’m working with clients (big companies) that care a lot - but not because they have to. They care because they lost trust in non EU players.

They also care because it's becoming increasingly risky to rely on US companies given the current political situation

nope, that no longer holds any water. was true though couple of years ago…

The argument holds most of the water.

Yes - security concerns are now very real, but do not fall for this idea that anyone really cares about structural concerns.

Tons of EU companies are still selling crap to Russia, happy to look the other way wile the bear devours a neighbour, as long as profits are there.

What has happened is that Trump has given a face to the reality, and so companies are adjusting on some level.

But 1) it will be nominal 2) Trump will be gone and the impetus will fade 3) the conglomerates will react 4) modest legislation will mean ...

The can will get kicked down the road.

The invasion of E. Europe by Russia has not even caused defence spending or the size of Armies to change, doctrine is barely changing.

Nothing will make those beheamoths change other than other forms of structural concern.

The 'Riet of the Right' - partly due to collapse of Auto / China (among many other things) might cause some change. But the change won't happen until well after the damage has been done.

Brexit should have been an opportunity for institutional reform of the EU, but no - they blamed it all on populism.

Certain governing entities in Europe will try to move away from Microsoft, they will be pulled back.

There is hope, and certain champions can rise and causes pieces to collapse.

If SUSE had any true entrepreneurial whereiwthal - they would create a true consumer / prosumer / enterprise-user friendly variation and brand their flavour of Unix - and make sure that all Euopean governments us it exclusively, which would cascade into widespread use.

There are variations of insta, youtube, netflix that should all be Europe based that could 'theoretically happen' but it needs some structural impetus.

Things usually don't change. Usually there needs to be a collapse and re-order of the system for that to happne.

The people in charge just want to keep their jobs, their very high salaries, and protect their retirement, and will be happy to 'sell out' whatever other imperatives along the way.

Ending with a positive not - I would say current conditions mean the change is now 'plausible, it not likely' whereas before it was 'not very plausible'. So there's a candle, a bit of wind, but not a lot of tinder or dry wood.