And why have the Nobel Prize winners been silent (or taken post-Nobel bets contrary to the current consensus ie Hinton-Hassabis)?

Taking GP at his word, I'd be more terrified if Oai had identified one hundred NEW open problems..

In contrast with Fields Medallists, some Nobelists get the prize for something they'd eventually NOT be (in)famous for. Like Josephson. In hindsight, will it be because they found out, as young unknowns, how to explore underappreciated avenues without millions in dedicated funds (uh encouragement).. ??

GP, did you? Get the prize for the question you are most proud of.