That's exactly what "prediction markets" sell themselves as. Super-predictors.
Insiders have an edge and can in theory shape the overall distribution of bets such that the real world outcomes are priced in better.
That's exactly what "prediction markets" sell themselves as. Super-predictors.
Insiders have an edge and can in theory shape the overall distribution of bets such that the real world outcomes are priced in better.
Yes but in this case, tens or hundreds of people know the outcome months in advance. I'm very surprised that the market doesn't immediately converge to 100% for one candidate. The winner is not really a forecastable 'random event' in that by the time the show is airing, it's not being pulled from a distribution.
In theory, an insider willing to take any positive-expectation bet would drive the market price arbitrary close to the correct answer, but in practice they might be under NDA and want to avoid getting caught, or they limit their bet amount for other reasons, so the market ends up dominated by gamblers placing uninformed bets.
Indeed, I'm just surprised.
Maybe the people who could take advantage of these markets are just not sufficiently aware of their existence.
I predict that in 5 years "who wins Survivor" will be completely dead though, because the markets will have become common knowledge and there'll be enough people willing to violate their NDAs/whatever for the money.
You say in practice, NDAs. What we've seen so far: classified military ops, people with access to Presidential speeches...
"There are three ways to learn. The most noble is by thinking and getting to the truth yourself. The second, which is still pretty good, is by imitating those who do. And the third one is through pain."
In prediction markets, imitation is the best policy