To anyone who owns BRK-B shares (or BRK-A if you have that kind of money), over the next decade your money will likely grow on par with if not at a slightly higher rate than keeping it in an S&P 500 Index fund. Regardless of board or management changes, BRK will stay a better long term bet than an index fund. Both options have similar amounts of risk.

This is a pretty bold claim, but it is HN talking about investments.

From here you can compare BRK vs S&P 500 historical performance: https://www.alphaspread.com/comparison/nyse/brk.b/vs/indx/gs...

In the last 10 years, their returns are nearly identical. However, each decade that you look back, BRK does better and better. But think about that: It's actually slowing down over the last 50 years. I predict will be equal or less the S&P 500 for the next two decades. BRK hardly invests in anything high tech (including bio-tech). They will be missing out on many hypergrowth opportunities.

How are you this confident about the future?

Easy, by not understanding it.

I hold BRK stocks and I expect it to underperform the market on average (but also be a very good hedge in case of big downturn). BRK is in big part short term treasuries then a stock portfolio then a core business (insurance, energy, rail, manufacturing etc.). While it's reasonable to expect the core business to outperform there is no way the whole thing is a favorite to do so because cash is a big drag.

    > but also be a very good hedge in case of big downturn
Are you aware that BRK cratered during the 2009 stock market crash? During a crash, except gov't bonds, pretty much everything sells off equally. There is a joke on Wall Street after 2009: During a crash, correlation on all assets goes to one (1.0).

Hasn't done so great since Buffett announced his retirement. Starting to recover lately.