US chip export winners and losers:
Winners: Huawei, SMIC, CXMT,Chinese ASML-competitors, OpenAI, Anthropic, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta.
Losers: Chinese AI labs, Nvidia, AMD, TSMC, Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung, Intel.
Any company that depends on Nvidia hardware such as OpenAI, Anthropic, AWS are winners. It means less competition for Nvidia chips and services. If you think Nvidia chips are expensive now, imagine if Chinese companies can buy them freely. Also for American AI labs, it also means they can stay ahead of Chinese AI labs in compute capacity.
The American hardware makers lost the lobby fight in Washington.
I wonder why Chinese AI labs are losers?
In the short term maybe yes, in the long term, maybe they are the winners, they can build on top of cheap inference stack and eventually win on pricing
Because having unrestricted access to both American and Chinese hardware is better than only Chinese hardware. Long term or short term. More suppliers the better.
Perhaps the future Chinese hardware would not be so cheap or performant had Nvidia export controls not been put into place.
Logically one would expect it to be relatively more expensive and less performant because it does not have to compete with Nvidia’s hardware.
I'm not sure I agree. The market pressure for this innovation might not have been there with Nvidia chips still available. In this case it is coming from necessity.
Intel shares are still up over 100% since the Trump admin invested in them and started going to bat for them.
I don't think your information is entirely accurate.
Such a great move by the government. Imagine what we could do for US industry if the government took a stake in all major corporations? Many people are saying that the healthcare industry should be next.
Not being able to have unrestricted access to the world's second biggest market does not relate to Intel being up over 100%.
Just logic.
Not making any GPUs worth buying makes you immune to export restrictions.
So we're basing winners and losers on vibes rather than money or performance?
A simple ChatGPT can explain it to you.
Intel being up 100% has nothing to do with China market being restricted. They could be up 200% instead if the China market is free.
>Intel shares are still up over 100% since the Trump admin invested in them and started going to bat for them.
Nokia shares were also up after the iPhone got announced. Current share prices don't really mean much in rational future outcomes, just FOMO, vibes and speculation of clueless masses of investors. They can also swing wildly up/down.
Especially since the market is hobbled and corrupt by now, owned by a handful of machines that humans barely have root control over anymore.